Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Rep. Of Ireland 1-1 Israel.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Rep. Of Ireland, 29% draw, 23% Israel — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rep. Of Ireland at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. KelleherG
- 2J. DunneD
- 5J. O'BrienD
- 3L. ScalesD
- 8J. KnightM
- 14C. CoventryM
- 6J. MolumbyM
- 18R. ManningM
- 17J. MoylanF
- 10A. IdahF
- 7T. ParrottF
- 16M. O'LearyG
- 23J. KeeleyG
- 13J. BaganD
- 15J. EganD
- 12L. KitchingD
- 4B. Lawal
- 11F. AzazM
- 22K. PhillipsM
- 21R. VataF
- 23A. TzurG
- 20L. AbadaD
- 17I. FeingoldD
- 5I. NachmiasD
- 13N. StoinovD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 8D. PeretzM
- 15E. PeretzM
- 21E. AzoulayM
- 11O. GloukhM
- 19D. TurgemanF
- 1N. EliasiG
- 18O. GlazerG
- 2E. DasaD
- 14G. MizrahiD
- 6O. GandelmanM
- 16G. KanichowskyM
- 12L. YarinM
- 7Y. ShuaF
- 10M. SolomonF
Form going into Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel
Rep. Of Ireland
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2Austria1 October 2026
- W3-0away to Israel27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kosovo24 September 2026
Israel
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Kosovo1 October 2026
- L0-3Rep. Of Ireland27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Austria24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | Israel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel
- 27 September 2026Israel 0–3 Rep. Of IrelandUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Rep. Of Ireland and Israel
Rep. Of Ireland
GoalsAssists
- T. Parrott40
Israel
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rep. Of Ireland and Israel drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rep. Of Ireland at 48% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: T. Parrott (penalty) 39' for Rep. Of Ireland, D. Peretz 47' for Israel. On expected goals it finished 1.90–1.00.
How the call on Rep. Of Ireland v Israel has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 29% / 23%: the biggest move is Rep. Of Ireland's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Rep. Of Ireland win48%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Israel win23%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.