25 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda Super Liga prediction & result

Omladinski stadion, Belgrade
Referee: M. Milanovic
Full time0 – 1

Final score: OFK Beograd 0-1 FK Crvena Zvezda.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% OFK Beograd, 20% draw, 65% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FK Crvena Zvezda at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

OFK Beograd0%Draw3%FK Crvena Zvezda97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
stefan gudelj
Herve Toure
38'
45+1'
⚽Aleksandar Kataiassist: Loizos Loizou
55'
🔁Muhammed Cham Saracevicout: Tomas·Handel
Uroš Stojanović
56'
Miljan Momcilovic
61'
63'
🔁Vladimir Lucicout: Mirko Ivanić
🔁Tjay De Barrout: Tayrell·Wouter
64'
79'
🔁Aleksandar Kataiout: Marko Arnautović
79'
🔁Mihailo Ristićout: Matej Strika
🔁Miljan Momcilovicout: Ethan Hoard
79'
79'
🔁Loizos Loizouout: Osman Bukari
🔁hameed aderojuout: Đ. Ranković
87'
🔁Stefan Despotovskiout: Marko Gobeljić
87'

Match stats — OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

40%Possession60%
13Shots15
3On target6
6Corners10
0.62xG1.22

Goals against chances

OFK Beograd0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth
FK Crvena Zvezda1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

OFK Beograd 4-2-3-1
  • 31Vuk DraškićG
  • 2S. DespotovskiD
  • 15N. MarašD
  • 4A. PavlovicD
  • 24U. StojanovićD
  • 6S. PeñaM
  • 14M. MomčilovićM
  • 27H. AderojuM
  • 18H. TouréM
  • 11T. De BarrM
  • 42Y. SilueF
Substitutes
  • 17M. BešićM
  • 26M. FallD
  • 77M. GobeljićD
  • 10S. MarkovićM
  • 97N. StojišićG
  • 47S. StojkovićD
  • 45A. VukičevićD
  • 91A. VasilićM
  • 19D. RankovicM
Coach: Radoslav Batak
FK Crvena Zvezda 3-5-2
  • 50S. RadanovićG
  • 45S. GudeljD
  • 13M. VeljkovićD
  • 23M. RistićD
  • 75L. LoizouM
  • 70M. ChamM
  • 33R. KrunićM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 3Y. NakayamaM
  • 10A. KataiF
  • 37V. LučićF
Substitutes
  • 14O. BukariF
  • 8K. BalovF
  • 20Tomás HändelM
  • 4M. IvanićM
  • 1MatheusG
  • 27M. StrikaD
  • 30F. Tebo UchennaD
  • 6M. BajoM
  • 7M. ArnautovićF
Coach: Riera

Form going into OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

OFK Beograd

Super Liga

  • D1-1away to Macva17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

Super Liga

  • W5-1Mladost Lucani18 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12OFK Beograd152581527-1211
1FK Crvena Zvezda151410386+3243

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda

  • 22 May 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 1–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 30 November 2025OFK Beograd 3–4 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 26 July 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 7–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 27 April 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 5–2 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 6 April 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
  • 26 March 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 5–3 OFK BeogradCup

Leading scorers: OFK Beograd and FK Crvena Zvezda

OFK Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Silue70

FK Crvena Zvezda

GoalsAssists

  • B. Dieng50
  • V. Kostov43
  • A. Katai34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Crvena Zvezda won 1–0 at OFK Beograd. The model had made a win for FK Crvena Zvezda its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Aleksandar Katai 45+1' for FK Crvena Zvezda. On expected goals it finished 0.62–1.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave OFK Beograd a 24.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.7% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.1%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For FK Crvena Zvezda the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 95.9% going in: 97.0% after a win, 94.7% after a draw, 92.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.0%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on OFK Beograd v FK Crvena Zvezda has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 17% / 21% / 62% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 15% / 20% / 65%: the biggest move is FK Crvena Zvezda's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. OFK Beograd win15%▼ −2
  2. Draw20%▼ −1
  3. FK Crvena Zvezda win65%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.