25 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Premier League prediction & result

Haradski Stadium, Barysaw
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0-0 FC Dnepr Mogilev.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk, 26% draw, 27% FC Dnepr Mogilev — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk7%Draw91%FC Dnepr Mogilev2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Andrey Denisyuk
🔁nikolay sotnikovout: Daniel Volskiy
7'
45'
Maksim Kasarab
🔁Andrei Zaleskiout: Maksim·Matveev
45'
🔁Valeri Gorbachikout: Ilya Vasin
70'
77'
🔁Kirill Kirilenkoout: Egor Karpitskiy
Denis Polyakov
80'
87'
🔁Dmitriy·Lisakovichout: R. Pilecki
90+2'
🔁Nikita krasnovout: Aleksey Dunaev

Match stats — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

57%Possession43%
13Shots8
8On target3
10Corners6

Line-ups

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 3-5-2
  • 30A. SorokoG
  • 31A. ZaleskiyD
  • 46V. VasilyevD
  • 23D. PolyakovD
  • 2E. BozhkoM
  • 69R. ErmolinM
  • 79K. BadoevM
  • 77N. SotnikovM
  • 13I. OreshkevichM
  • 90D. AntilevskiyF
  • 33V. GorbachikF
Substitutes
  • 4RamiresD
  • 71M. MatveevD
  • 1I. SankoG
  • 10S. SazonchikM
  • 11D. TsallagovM
  • 16A. VaschenkoG
  • 9I. VasinF
  • 19A. VeretennikovM
  • 18D. VolskiyM
Coach: Igor Voronkov
FC Dnepr Mogilev 4-3-3
  • 33A. SinenkoG
  • 17A. PotapenkoD
  • 5A. VarganovD
  • 8S. RusakD
  • 15M. KasarabD
  • 55N. KrasnovM
  • 89V. HarutyunyanM
  • 11D. LisakovichM
  • 29A. DenisyukF
  • 10K. ZabelinF
  • 88K. KirilenkoF
Substitutes
  • 23A. DunaevD
  • 7G. MuzaffarF
  • 77Dmitri GushchenkoG
  • 21E. KarpitskiyF
  • 3Nenad PerovićD
  • 27R. PiletskiyM
  • 99V. StepanenkoF
  • 37K. TsepenkovM
  • 26F. YurkevichD
Coach: I. Kriushenko

Form going into Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Premier League

  • L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 October 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026

FC Dnepr Mogilev

Premier League

  • W2-1Bate Borisov18 October 2026
  • L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2869132546-2127
15FC Dnepr Mogilev28411132743-1623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

  • 14 June 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 7 September 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–6 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 August 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 3–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
  • 29 March 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 1 October 2023FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1. Division
  • 28 May 2023Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–0 FC Dnepr Mogilev1. Division

The result against the call

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk and FC Dnepr Mogilev drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Andrey Denisyuk (FC Dnepr Mogilev) 1'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arsenal Dzerzhinsk a 18.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.2% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 36.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.4%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For FC Dnepr Mogilev the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 79.7% going in: 56.3% after a win, 83.7% after a draw, 90.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 83.7%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arsenal Dzerzhinsk v FC Dnepr Mogilev has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win47%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. FC Dnepr Mogilev win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.