AIK Stockholm
vs
Mjallby AIF
Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: AIK Stockholm 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% AIK Stockholm, 21% draw, 16% Mjallby AIF — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 2.94, Mjallby AIF 0.92.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AIK Stockholm at 63% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF
Line-ups
- 15K. NordfeldtG
- 17M. ThychosenD
- 20S. HausnerD
- 3H. MatthysD
- 2E. EdhD
- 46Yannick GeigerM
- 18A. AliM
- 8J. HoveM
- 48A. KouameF
- 9L. CarlstrandF
- 10L. AssadiF
- 47L. CamaraD
- 16Sixten GustafssonF
- 28L. JäretegM
- 30K. JoelssonG
- 7A. MujanićM
- 49O. PukelisD
- 43N. StaykovF
- 34W. OlofssonD
- 44David MalkiM
- 13R. WallinderG
- 33T. MiettinenD
- 4A. NorénD
- 5Abdullah IqbalD
- 14Villiam GranathM
- 7V. GustafsonM
- 22J. GustavssonM
- 25M. NielsenM
- 23Á. SamuelsenF
- 18J. BergströmF
- 9A. YoussefF
- 26I. HoffmannD
- 10J. KjærM
- 29Olle LindbergM
- 24T. PetterssonD
- 2L. SvanbergD
- 27L. TidstrandM
- 1S. HansenG
- 6M. EnggårdM
- 39R. LeanderssonM
Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF
AIK Stockholm
- L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
- W3-2Hammarby FF30 August 2026
- W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026
Mjallby AIF
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
- L0-2Djurgardens IF3 September 2026
- L0-4away to Djurgardens IF31 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AIK Stockholm | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 33 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF
- 16 September 2026AIK Stockholm 1–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 11 July 2026Mjallby AIF 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 20 July 2025Mjallby AIF 2–0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 11 May 2025AIK Stockholm 2–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 11 August 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 13 April 2024Mjallby AIF 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF
AIK Stockholm
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Mjallby AIF
- J. Bergström8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.94 goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.92 for Mjallby AIF; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jacob Bergstrom 19' (Mjallby AIF), axel kouame 40' (AIK Stockholm).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AIK Stockholm the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.94 expected goals for AIK Stockholm against 0.92 for Mjallby AIF. AIK Stockholm's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.66 for Mjallby AIF.