13 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy Premier Soccer League prediction & result

Orlando Stadium, Johannesburg
Referee: Jelly Chavani
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Orlando Pirates 3-0 TS Galaxy.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Orlando Pirates, 18% draw, 7% TS Galaxy — fair odds of 1.33, 5.56 and 14.29.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Orlando Pirates at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orlando Pirates99%Draw1%TS Galaxy0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Boitumelo Lawrence Radiopaneassist: Oswin Appollis
18'
Ghampani Lungu
25'
41'
Mpho Mvelase
45'
🔁Siyanda Xuluout: Seluleko Mahlambi
🔁Ghampani Lunguout: Tshepang Moremi
45'
⚽Tshepang Moremiassist: B Sigomoshe
50'
🔁Oswin Appollisout: Kabelo Kgosietsile
55'
🔁B Sigomosheout: Mthetheleli Sibansezwe Mthiyane
56'
62'
Mlondi Mncwango
🔁Boitumelo Lawrence Radiopaneout: Evidence Makgopa
66'
66'
T. Kakora
70'
🔁S. Georgeout: Thulani Zandamela
thapelo mokobodi
73'
⚽Simphiwe Masilela
76'
77'
🔁Junior Zindogaout: Anslin Williams
77'
🔁Mpho Mvelaseout: Makhama Rantoa
🔁Nkosinathi Sibisiout: Sbangani Zulu
81'
Simphiwe Masilela
90+2'

Match stats — Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy

49%Possession51%
15Shots9
8On target1
2Corners2
2.05xG0.68

Goals against chances

Orlando Pirates3 from 2.05 xGmore than the chances were worth
TS Galaxy0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orlando Pirates 4-2-3-1
  • 24S. ChaineG
  • 2B. SigomosheD
  • 6L. SeemaD
  • 5N. SibisiD
  • 3N. NdabaD
  • 20S. SelepeM
  • 33T. MokobodiM
  • 23G. LunguM
  • 48S. MasilelaM
  • 12O. AppollisM
  • 25B. RadiopaneF
Substitutes
  • 17E. MakgopaF
  • 11T. MoremiF
  • 46C. DansinF
  • 32S. DladlaG
  • 49K. KgosietsileM
  • 29M. MthiyaneM
  • 38Mpho PadimeF
  • 19N. RapooD
  • 37S. ZuluD
Coach: A. Ouaddou
TS Galaxy 3-1-4-2
  • 16I. TapéG
  • 24Lennol MathebulaD
  • 25K. MhlongoD
  • 3M. MncwangoD
  • 8M. MbunjanaM
  • 13S. XuluM
  • 14Tshepo KakoraM
  • 2M. MvelaseM
  • 21Junior ZindogaM
  • 17V. LetsoaloF
  • 19S. GeorgeF
Substitutes
  • 29Thulani ZandamelaM
  • 23P. FisherD
  • 7Seluleko MahlambiF
  • 4M. MahlanguD
  • 1Sipho Gift MasetiG
  • 33S. NgobeniD
  • 6N. NkosiM
  • 15M. RantoaF
  • 11Anslin WilliamsM
Coach: Bernard Parker

Form going into Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy

Orlando Pirates

Premier Soccer League

  • W2-0away to Marumo Gallants20 September 2026
  • W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026

TS Galaxy

Premier Soccer League

  • L0-1Chippa United20 September 2026
  • L0-1Kruger United13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Sekhukhune United5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Soccer League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Orlando Pirates9810212+1925
12TS Galaxy9144712-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy

  • 22 March 2026TS Galaxy 0–6 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
  • 30 September 2025Orlando Pirates 2–0 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
  • 17 May 2025Orlando Pirates 1–1 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
  • 29 October 2024TS Galaxy 0–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
  • 18 May 2024TS Galaxy 1–0 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League

Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and TS Galaxy

Orlando Pirates

GoalsAssists

  • T. Moremi50
  • B. Radiopane31
  • Y. Mbuthuma30

TS Galaxy

GoalsAssists

  • V. Letsoalo40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Orlando Pirates beat TS Galaxy 3–0. The model had made a win for Orlando Pirates its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Boitumelo Lawrence Radiopane 18' for Orlando Pirates, Tshepang Moremi 50' for Orlando Pirates, Simphiwe Masilela 76' for Orlando Pirates. On expected goals it finished 2.05–0.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando Pirates a 79.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 80.7% after a win, 74.2% after a draw, 71.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.7%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

For TS Galaxy the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.8% going in: 17.6% after a win, 28.2% after a draw, 31.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.7%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Soccer League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Orlando Pirates v TS Galaxy has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 66% / 23% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 75% / 18% / 7%: the biggest move is Orlando Pirates's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Orlando Pirates win75%▲ +9
  2. Draw18%▼ −5
  3. TS Galaxy win7%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.