Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Orlando Pirates 3-0 TS Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 75% Orlando Pirates, 18% draw, 7% TS Galaxy — fair odds of 1.33, 5.56 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Orlando Pirates at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24S. ChaineG
- 2B. SigomosheD
- 6L. SeemaD
- 5N. SibisiD
- 3N. NdabaD
- 20S. SelepeM
- 33T. MokobodiM
- 23G. LunguM
- 48S. MasilelaM
- 12O. AppollisM
- 25B. RadiopaneF
- 17E. MakgopaF
- 11T. MoremiF
- 46C. DansinF
- 32S. DladlaG
- 49K. KgosietsileM
- 29M. MthiyaneM
- 38Mpho PadimeF
- 19N. RapooD
- 37S. ZuluD
- 16I. TapéG
- 24Lennol MathebulaD
- 25K. MhlongoD
- 3M. MncwangoD
- 8M. MbunjanaM
- 13S. XuluM
- 14Tshepo KakoraM
- 2M. MvelaseM
- 21Junior ZindogaM
- 17V. LetsoaloF
- 19S. GeorgeF
- 29Thulani ZandamelaM
- 23P. FisherD
- 7Seluleko MahlambiF
- 4M. MahlanguD
- 1Sipho Gift MasetiG
- 33S. NgobeniD
- 6N. NkosiM
- 15M. RantoaF
- 11Anslin WilliamsM
Form going into Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
Orlando Pirates
Premier Soccer League
- W2-0away to Marumo Gallants20 September 2026
- W2-0Durban City17 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
TS Galaxy
Premier Soccer League
- L0-1Chippa United20 September 2026
- L0-1Kruger United13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sekhukhune United5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 25 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy
- 22 March 2026TS Galaxy 0–6 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 30 September 2025Orlando Pirates 2–0 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
- 17 May 2025Orlando Pirates 1–1 TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
- 29 October 2024TS Galaxy 0–2 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
- 18 May 2024TS Galaxy 1–0 Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and TS Galaxy
Orlando Pirates
GoalsAssists
- T. Moremi50
- B. Radiopane31
- Y. Mbuthuma30
TS Galaxy
GoalsAssists
- V. Letsoalo40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orlando Pirates beat TS Galaxy 3–0. The model had made a win for Orlando Pirates its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Boitumelo Lawrence Radiopane 18' for Orlando Pirates, Tshepang Moremi 50' for Orlando Pirates, Simphiwe Masilela 76' for Orlando Pirates. On expected goals it finished 2.05–0.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando Pirates a 79.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 80.7% after a win, 74.2% after a draw, 71.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.7%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
For TS Galaxy the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.8% going in: 17.6% after a win, 28.2% after a draw, 31.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.7%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier Soccer League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Orlando Pirates v TS Galaxy has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 66% / 23% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 75% / 18% / 7%: the biggest move is Orlando Pirates's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Orlando Pirates win75%▲ +9
- Draw18%▼ −5
- TS Galaxy win7%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.