Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Kyoto Sanga 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Kyoto Sanga, 20% draw, 19% Ratchaburi — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Kyoto Sanga at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 90HallsG
- 5H. TawiahD
- 43WevertonD
- 62T. ShichiD
- 26R. KatoM
- 14ThiagoM
- 25Yoon Sung-JunM
- 44K. SatoM
- 77H. AraiF
- 38EvertonF
- 11Marco TúlioF
- 50Y. SuzukiD
- 10S. FukuokaM
- 40Y. IshidaD
- 21K. KakoiG
- 18T. MatsudaM
- 15K. NagataD
- 48R. NakanoM
- 1G. OtaG
- 19David Da Silva CostaF
- 99K. PhatomakkakulG
- 27J. CurranD
- 3Tarek AggounD
- 44Pablo InsuaD
- 31S. van WermeskerkenD
- 16Roque MesaM
- 8T. SuengchitthawonM
- 92Njiva RakotoharimalalaM
- 6TanaM
- 21E. PanyaM
- 9Bruno MendesF
- 97U. WongmeemaG
- 5D. TingD
- 15A. PromrakD
- 88C. PoomkaewM
- 20Sanchai NontasilaD
- 28T. LimwanasathianM
- 48S. AllardiceM
Form going into Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
Kyoto Sanga
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026
Ratchaburi
AFC Champions League Elite
- L4-6SHANGHAI SIPG15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kyoto Sanga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 14 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Kyoto Sanga and Ratchaburi
Kyoto Sanga
GoalsAssists
- Alex Negueba21
Ratchaburi
GoalsAssists
- Martin Njiva Rakotoharimalala31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kyoto Sanga beat Ratchaburi 1–0. The model had made a win for Kyoto Sanga its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Temma Matsuda 88' for Kyoto Sanga. On expected goals it finished 1.20–0.37.
How the call on Kyoto Sanga v Ratchaburi has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 55% / 23% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 61% / 20% / 19%: the biggest move is Kyoto Sanga's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Kyoto Sanga win61%▲ +6
- Draw20%▼ −3
- Ratchaburi win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.