Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle Jets 1-3 Gamba Osaka.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Newcastle Jets, 24% draw, 35% Gamba Osaka — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Newcastle Jets at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. DelianovG
- 22J. BertolissioD
- 5J. ShaughnessyD
- 39T. AquilinaD
- 23D. WilmeringD
- 14M. BurgessM
- 28W. DobsonM
- 6Z. SchreiberM
- 10Z. CloughM
- 43X. BertoncelloM
- 9N. VergosF
- 11J. LolleyF
- 52Nicholas BadolatoM
- 61Angus ReidD
- 27Julian RecchiaM
- 64Jesse HillF
- 65Kaiden WalsheD
- 24A. NunesM
- 40J. BaylisG
- 54J. GoodwinF
- 22J. IchimoriG
- 15T. KishimotoD
- 4S. NakataniD
- 2S. FukuokaD
- 47S. NakanoD
- 13S. AbeM
- 16T. SuzukiM
- 20E. AdamsM
- 11I. JebaliM
- 8R. MeshinoM
- 41Y. ToshidaF
- 21R. HatsuseD
- 1M. HigashiguchiG
- 23D. HümmetF
- 10S. KurataM
- 27R. MitoM
- 67S. SasakiD
- 7T. UsamiF
- 97Welton FelipeF
- 17R. YamashitaF
Form going into Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka
Newcastle Jets
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026
Gamba Osaka
AFC Champions League Elite
- W4-1Công An Nhân Dân15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 0 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Newcastle Jets and Gamba Osaka
Newcastle Jets
GoalsAssists
- P. Wood40
Gamba Osaka
GoalsAssists
- T. Usami30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gamba Osaka won 3–1 at Newcastle Jets. The model had leaned towards a win for Newcastle Jets at 41% and given a win for Gamba Osaka 35%. The goals: Nikos Vergos 32' for Newcastle Jets, Yusei Toshida 40' for Gamba Osaka, Deniz Hümmet 73' for Gamba Osaka, Welton 86' for Gamba Osaka. On expected goals it finished 0.88–2.37.
How the call on Newcastle Jets v Gamba Osaka has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 40% / 26% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 24% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Newcastle Jets win41%▲ +1
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Gamba Osaka win35%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.