Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Richards Bay 1-4 Mamelodi Sundowns.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Richards Bay, 23% draw, 57% Mamelodi Sundowns — fair odds of 5.00, 4.35 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Mamelodi Sundowns at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ian Aubrey OtienoG
- 22L. MabuyaD
- 25S. McinekaD
- 49Nkosiyethu MkhabelaD
- 37S. GweleD
- 77L. KhumaloM
- 24Siyabonga GumedeM
- 12S. GumbiM
- 20M. MthembuF
- 27N. XuluF
- 19S. NzamaF
- 5T. SikhakhaneD
- 31O. MbamboF
- 14L. MahalaF
- 3S. KhumaloD
- 6Khayelihle MncubeM
- 35T. NdeluD
- 16Nhlakanipho NgcoboG
- 33W. NgemaM
- 26Wandile NgidiF
- 30R. WilliamsG
- 22T. MatuludiD
- 42Malibongwe KhozaD
- 3K. NdamaneD
- 23F. BasadienD
- 4T. MokoenaM
- 11M. AllendeM
- 38S. MthantiM
- 33C. MailulaM
- 17T. MatthewsM
- 13I. RaynersF
- 31R. GossG
- 12B. LeónF
- 5D. LungaD
- 27T. MorenaD
- 40M. MvalaD
- 10Nuno SantosM
- 29A. Van WykF
- 19T. CeleM
- 18T. ZwaneM
Form going into Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Richards Bay
Premier Soccer League
- L2-3Sekhukhune United19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Milford FC13 September 2026
- L1-2Amazulu4 September 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns
Premier Soccer League
- D1-1away to Chippa United12 September 2026
- W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Richards Bay | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 3 |
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
- 26 April 2026Richards Bay 0–0 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
- 27 September 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 4–1 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 3 August 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 4–0 Richards Bay8 Cup
- 30 April 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 3–0 Richards BayPremier Soccer League
- 28 December 2024Richards Bay 0–2 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns
Richards Bay
GoalsAssists
- N. Xulu50
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- I. Rayners40
- T. Matthews34
- B. León31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mamelodi Sundowns won 4–1 at Richards Bay. The model had made a win for Mamelodi Sundowns its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tashreeq Matthews 18' for Mamelodi Sundowns, Lwandile Sandile Mabuya 22' for Richards Bay, Iqraam Rayners 37' for Mamelodi Sundowns, Iqraam Rayners 48' for Mamelodi Sundowns, Fawaaz basadien 59' for Mamelodi Sundowns. On expected goals it finished 0.60–1.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Richards Bay a 46.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 36.4% after a win, 45.4% after a draw, 49.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.7%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
For Mamelodi Sundowns the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 18.3% going in: 20.2% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.2%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier Soccer League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Richards Bay v Mamelodi Sundowns has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 23% / 26% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 20% / 23% / 57%: the biggest move is Mamelodi Sundowns's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Richards Bay win20%▼ −3
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Mamelodi Sundowns win57%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.