19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga prediction & result

MHPArena, Stuttgart
Full time0 – 1

Final score: VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% VfB Stuttgart, 28% draw, 38% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Borussia Dortmund at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfB Stuttgart0%Draw4%Borussia Dortmund96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ermedin Demirović
13'
Angelo Stiller
17'
32'
Nico Schlotterbeck
46'
Joey Veerman
57'
Kouakou Joane Gadou
62'
🔁Joey Veermanout: Jobe Bellingham
62'
🔁Ethan Nwaneriout: Konstantinos Karetsas
🔁Chris Führichout: Jamie Leweling
64'
🔁Deniz Undavout: Dženan Pejčinović
64'
70'
⚽Maximilian Beierassist: Jobe Bellingham
74'
🔁Serhou Guirassyout: Fábio Silva
81'
Jobe Bellingham
82'
Julian Ryerson
82'
🔁Maximilian Beierout: Marcel Sabitzer
82'
🔁Julian Ryersonout: Ramy Bensebaini
🔁Bilal El Khannoussout: Leo Sauer
84'
🔁Grischa Prömelout: Nikolas Nartey
84'

Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

56%Possession44%
12Shots13
5On target2
6Corners2

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 29Finn JeltschD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 7M. MittelstädtD
  • 4J. VagnomanM
  • 21G. PrömelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 10C. FührichM
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 26D. UndavM
  • 9E. DemirovićF
Substitutes
  • 28N. NarteyM
  • 17D. PejčinovićF
  • 44L. SauerF
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
  • 33M. FunkG
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 47Y. SpaltD
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 18J. LewelingF
Coach: S. Hoeneb
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 4N. SchlotterbeckD
  • 26J. RyersonM
  • 25J. VeermanM
  • 8F. NmechaM
  • 24D. SvenssonM
  • 18E. NwaneriM
  • 14M. BeierM
  • 9S. GuirassyF
Substitutes
  • 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  • 40S. InacioF
  • 19K. KaretsasM
  • 33A. MeyerG
  • 49L. ReggianiD
  • 20M. SabitzerM
  • 21Fábio SilvaF
  • 7J. BellinghamM
  • 5R. BensebaïniD
Coach: N. Kovač

Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

VfB Stuttgart

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
  • W3-1Viking9 September 2026
  • W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
  • W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
  • W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
  • W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026

What these results say

  • VfB Stuttgart scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • VfB Stuttgart conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for VfB Stuttgart had three goals or more.
  • Borussia Dortmund won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Dortmund scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Borussia Dortmund had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8VfB Stuttgart94051515012
2Borussia Dortmund9630167+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

  • 4 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 22 November 2025Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 8 February 2025Borussia Dortmund 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 22 September 2024VfB Stuttgart 5–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 6 April 2024Borussia Dortmund 0–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga

The full VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund record →

Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund

VfB Stuttgart

GoalsAssists

  • E. Demirović50

Borussia Dortmund

GoalsAssists

  • F. Nmecha40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Borussia Dortmund won 1–0 at VfB Stuttgart. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Maximilian Beier 70' for Borussia Dortmund.

How the call on VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is VfB Stuttgart's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. VfB Stuttgart win34%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Borussia Dortmund win38%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.