6 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Oțelul vs Rapid Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Otelul, Galati
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Oțelul 0-1 Rapid.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Oțelul, 29% draw, 40% Rapid — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rapid at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oțelul3%Draw91%Rapid6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Patrick Fernandes
18'
46'
🔁M. Kamaraout: V. Bubanja
58'
🔁R. Oneaout: C. Manea
58'
🔁C. Vulturarout: C. B. Doumbia
🔁A. Ciobanuout: Joao Paulino
72'
🔁M. Frunzaout: D. Bordun
72'
Patrick Fernandes
78'
Patrick Fernandes
78'
79'
🔁E. Annanout: W. L. Ouedraogo
Pedro Nuno
80'
80'
🔁C. Grameniout: J. Kodor
🔁N. Pedroout: Ze Turbo
81'
🔁T. Lunguout: M. Zhelev
88'
90'
⚽A. Pascanuassist: O. Morutan

Match stats — Oțelul vs Rapid

48%Possession52%
12Shots19
4On target6
1Corners8
0.39xG2.97

Goals against chances

Oțelul0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rapid1 from 2.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oțelul 4-1-4-1
  • 1C. Dur-BozoancaG
  • 5H. Sylla
  • 3G. ChristopoulosD
  • 6P. IacobD
  • 28M. SilvaD
  • 39T. LunguM
  • 30M. FrunzaM
  • 17A. CiobanuM
  • 27N. PedroM
  • 10AndrezinhoM
  • 9PatrickF
Substitutes
  • 13M. ContraG
  • 12D. PaharnicuG
  • 2M. ZhelevD
  • 16D. NeicuD
  • 18D. AfteneM
  • 7Joao PaulinoF
  • 11Ze Turbo
  • 24D. BordunM
  • 77A. BalanicaF
Coach: Stjepan Tomas
Rapid 4-2-3-1
  • 99B. UngureanuG
  • 19R. OneaD
  • 5A. PascanuD
  • 6L. KramerD
  • 27E. AnnanD
  • 15C. VulturarM
  • 8C. GrameniM
  • 29A. DobreM
  • 80O. MorutanM
  • 7M. KamaraM
  • 9F. StojilkovicF
Substitutes
  • 68R. DucanG
  • 23C. ManeaD
  • 13D. CiobotariuD
  • 42A. Kumer Celik
  • 66W. L. OuedraogoD
  • 22V. BubanjaM
  • 20A. SucuM
  • 44C. B. DoumbiaM
  • 79E. TapeM
Coach: Daniel Pancu

Form going into Oțelul vs Rapid

Oțelul

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
  • W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti7 August 2026
  • D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti31 July 2026

Rapid

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova31 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 August 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Bucuresti15 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Uta Arad7 August 2026
  • W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj2 August 2026

What these results say

  • Oțelul failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Oțelul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Oțelul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rapid had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Oțelul152761723-613
3Rapid159422414+1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Rapid

  • 13 December 2025Rapid 0–2 OțelulLiga I
  • 11 August 2025Oțelul 1–1 RapidLiga I
  • 8 February 2025Oțelul 1–1 RapidLiga I
  • 28 September 2024Rapid 0–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 3 February 2024Rapid 2–1 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: Oțelul and Rapid

Oțelul

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick40

Rapid

GoalsAssists

  • A. Dobre60
  • F. Stojilković41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rapid won 1–0 at Oțelul. The model had made a win for Rapid its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: A. Pascanu 90' for Rapid. Sent off: Patrick Fernandes (Oțelul) 78'. On expected goals it finished 0.39–2.97.

How the call on Oțelul v Rapid has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is Oțelul's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Oțelul win31%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Rapid win40%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.