6 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Oțelul vs Rapid Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Otelul, Galati
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Oțelul 0-1 Rapid.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Oțelul, 29% draw, 40% Rapid — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rapid at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oțelul3%Draw91%Rapid6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Patrick Fernandes
18'
46'
🔁M. Kamaraout: V. Bubanja
58'
🔁R. Oneaout: C. Manea
58'
🔁C. Vulturarout: C. B. Doumbia
🔁A. Ciobanuout: Joao Paulino
72'
🔁M. Frunzaout: D. Bordun
72'
Patrick Fernandes
78'
Patrick Fernandes
78'
79'
🔁E. Annanout: W. L. Ouedraogo
Pedro Nuno
80'
80'
🔁C. Grameniout: J. Kodor
🔁N. Pedroout: Ze Turbo
81'
🔁T. Lunguout: M. Zhelev
88'
90'
⚽A. Pascanuassist: O. Morutan

Match stats — Oțelul vs Rapid

48%Possession52%
12Shots19
4On target6
1Corners8
0.39xG2.97

Goals against chances

Oțelul0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rapid1 from 2.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oțelul 4-1-4-1
  • 1C. Dur-BozoancaG
  • 5H. Sylla
  • 3G. ChristopoulosD
  • 6P. IacobD
  • 28M. SilvaD
  • 39T. LunguM
  • 30M. FrunzaM
  • 17A. CiobanuM
  • 27N. PedroM
  • 10AndrezinhoM
  • 9PatrickF
Substitutes
  • 13M. ContraG
  • 12D. PaharnicuG
  • 2M. ZhelevD
  • 16D. NeicuD
  • 18D. AfteneM
  • 7Joao PaulinoF
  • 11Ze Turbo
  • 24D. BordunM
  • 77A. BalanicaF
Coach: Stjepan Tomas
Rapid 4-2-3-1
  • 99B. UngureanuG
  • 19R. OneaD
  • 5A. PascanuD
  • 6L. KramerD
  • 27E. AnnanD
  • 15C. VulturarM
  • 8C. GrameniM
  • 29A. DobreM
  • 80O. MorutanM
  • 7M. KamaraM
  • 9F. StojilkovicF
Substitutes
  • 68R. DucanG
  • 23C. ManeaD
  • 13D. CiobotariuD
  • 42A. Kumer Celik
  • 66W. L. OuedraogoD
  • 22V. BubanjaM
  • 20A. SucuM
  • 44C. B. DoumbiaM
  • 79E. TapeM
Coach: Daniel Pancu

Form going into Oțelul vs Rapid

Oțelul

  • D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
  • W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026

Rapid

  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova31 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 August 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Bucuresti15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Oțelul9243912-310
2Rapid9531115+618

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Rapid

  • 6 September 2026Oțelul 0–1 RapidLiga I
  • 13 December 2025Rapid 0–2 OțelulLiga I
  • 11 August 2025Oțelul 1–1 RapidLiga I
  • 8 February 2025Oțelul 1–1 RapidLiga I
  • 28 September 2024Rapid 0–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 3 February 2024Rapid 2–1 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: Oțelul and Rapid

Oțelul

  • Patrick4 goals

Rapid

  • A. Dobre3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.