Almeria vs Cadiz Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Almeria 3-2 Cadiz.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Almeria, 27% draw, 30% Cadiz — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almeria vs Cadiz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. FernandezG
- 2M. LunaD
- 19Rodrigo ElyD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 15L. LeloD
- 29S. DzodicM
- 33Q. JunyentM
- 12Leo BaptistaoM
- 14Javier MunozM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 24M. de la FuenteF
- 31A. YaakobishviliG
- 13F. MartinezG
- 5J. PulidoD
- 3A. MunozD
- 21ChumiD
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 6M. VesgaM
- 10N. MelamedM
- 23A. EmbarbaF
- 13J. EzkietaG
- 12G. GocholeishviliD
- 14B. KovacevicD
- 4J. CastroD
- 22C. GutierrezD
- 23D. RodriguezM
- 5M. DoueM
- 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
- 18JandroM
- 16A. CorderoM
- 19IzetaF
- 1D. GilG
- 6M. FernandezD
- 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
- 15K. ToibibouD
- 3S. ArribasD
- 33M. RiveraM
- 24I. SanchezM
- 21V. KopotunF
- 8E. AghamaF
Form going into Almeria vs Cadiz
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
- W3-0Eldense17 August 2026
Cadiz
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Valladolid30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Eldense22 August 2026
- D0-0Celta de Vigo II15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs Cadiz
- 8 February 2026Cadiz 1–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 16 November 2025Almeria 3–0 CadizSegunda División
- 9 May 2025Cadiz 2–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 22 December 2024Almeria 1–1 CadizSegunda División
- 25 May 2024Almeria 6–1 CadizLa Liga
- 26 August 2023Cadiz 1–1 AlmeriaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Almeria and Cadiz
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria beat Cadiz 3–2. The model had made a win for Almeria its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Javier Munoz 13' for Almeria, J. Castro 25' for Cadiz, M. de la Fuente 36' for Almeria, Leo Baptistao 44' for Almeria, D. Chirino (own goal) 90' for Cadiz. On expected goals it finished 1.40–0.91.
How the call on Almeria v Cadiz has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Almeria's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Almeria win43%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Cadiz win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.