9 August 2026, 13:30 UTC

Paks vs Budapest Honved NB I prediction & result

Paks
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Paks 2-2 Budapest Honved.

Before kick-off the model made it 77% Paks, 12% draw, 11% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 1.30, 8.33 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Paks at 77% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paks96%Draw4%Budapest Honved0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kristóf Papp
34'
🔁G. Gyurkitsout: K. Horvath
46'
🔁J. Galambosout: Z. Haraszti
46'
52'
Deian Boldor
⚽M. Peto
59'
🔁E. Silyeout: M. Gyorfi
60'
65'
🔁A. Alicout: K. Kantor
65'
🔁A. Zuigeberout: P. Pinte
68'
⚽T. Somogyiassist: K. Kantor
🔁M. Petoout: D. Bode
75'
⚽J. Szalaiassist: A. Lapu
79'
🔁J. Szalaiout: J. Windecker
80'
85'
Szilveszter Hangya
85'
🔁A. Szamosiout: Z. Medgyes
85'
🔁A. Somogyiout: I. Pekar
85'
🔁T. Somogyiout: A. Gyurcso
90'
⚽D. Csontos (pen)

Match stats — Paks vs Budapest Honved

53%Possession47%
18Shots14
6On target7
4Corners4

Line-ups

Paks 3-5-2
  • 1A. KovacsikG
  • 12G. VasD
  • 30J. SzaboD
  • 20M. ZekeD
  • 14E. SilyeM
  • 17M. PetoM
  • 18G. GyurkitsM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 4A. LapuM
  • 7J. Szalai
  • 27J. GalambosF
Substitutes
  • 28M. GyetvanG
  • 13D. BodeF
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 5B. VecseiM
  • 29B. TothF
  • 26M. SzekszardiD
  • 19K. HorvathM
  • 6M. Gyorfi
  • 16B. WiesnerF
Coach: Gyorgy Bognar
Budapest Honved 4-2-3-1
  • 83T. TujvelG
  • 72K. KallaiD
  • 4A. SzaboD
  • 52D. BoldorD
  • 11S. HangyaD
  • 8A. SomogyiM
  • 5D. CsontosM
  • 7A. ZuigeberM
  • 30T. SomogyiM
  • 40A. SzamosiM
  • 19A. AlicF
Substitutes
  • 1G. DuzsG
  • 31O. HadzikicG
  • 49B. PauljevicD
  • 23Z. MedgyesF
  • 99I. PekarD
  • 71K. KantorF
  • 9A. GyurcsoF
  • 15B. CsonkaD
  • 17P. PinteF
Coach: Maurizio Jacobacci

Form going into Paks vs Budapest Honved

Paks

  • L2-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE3 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Panathinaikos30 July 2026
  • W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
  • L1-2Panathinaikos23 July 2026

Budapest Honved

  • D3-3MTK Budapest1 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Paks72231517-28
11Budapest Honved61321011-16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paks vs Budapest Honved

  • 9 August 2026Paks 2–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 31 October 2024Budapest Honved 1–5 PaksMagyar Kupa
  • 2 November 2023Budapest Honved 2–2 PaksMagyar Kupa
  • 1 April 2023Budapest Honved 1–2 PaksNB I
  • 6 November 2022Paks 5–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 14 August 2022Budapest Honved 3–3 PaksNB I

Leading scorers: Paks and Budapest Honved

Paks

  • J. Szalai6 goals1 assists
  • M. Pető3 goals
  • Z. Haraszti2 goals2 assists

Budapest Honved

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.