Kisvarda FC vs Ujpest NB I prediction & result
Final score: Kisvarda FC 2-4 Ujpest.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Kisvarda FC, 25% draw, 23% Ujpest — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kisvarda FC at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kisvarda FC vs Ujpest
Line-ups
- 23Ilya PopovichG
- 6Maksym OstrovkaD
- 26Nikola RadmanovacD
- 4Martin ChlumeckýD
- 10Dominik SoltészD
- 80Hianga'a M'BockM
- 27Jasmin MešanovićM
- 14Bogdan MelnykM
- 24Christián HercM
- 77Ákos ÉsikM
- 45Teslim Abdulateef BalogunF
- 1Marcell KovácsG
- 32Zsombor PappG
- 18Kevin KörmendiM
- 5Bálint OláhM
- 70Levente SzőrM
- 7Anatoliy NurievM
- 11Marko MatanovićM
- 55Krisztián NagyF
- 29Bence BíróF
- 1Péter SzappanosG
- 2János BodnárD
- 3HeitorD
- 94Patrizio StronatiD
- 36Ferenc UjváryD
- 10Arne MaierM
- 88Matija LjujićM
- 27Ábel György KrajcsovicsM
- 14Etienne AmenyidoM
- 11Krisztofer HorváthM
- 39Gleofilo VlijterF
- 23Dávid BanaiG
- 32Dávid DombóG
- 30João NunesD
- 5Attila FiolaD
- 21Tizian-Valentino ScharmerD
- 15Miron MucsányiM
- 18Tom LacouxM
- 77Noah FenyőM
- 45Arijan AdemiM
Form going into Kisvarda FC vs Ujpest
Kisvarda FC
- W2-0away to Puskas Academy31 July 2026
- D1-1Budapest Honved25 July 2026
Ujpest
- W4-2Debreceni VSC2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Ujpest
- 8 August 2026Kisvarda FC 2–4 UjpestNB I
- 14 March 2026Ujpest 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 30 November 2025Kisvarda FC 3–0 UjpestNB I
- 15 August 2025Ujpest 0–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 13 April 2024Kisvarda FC 4–1 UjpestNB I
- 16 December 2023Kisvarda FC 4–0 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Kisvarda FC and Ujpest
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
- M. Matanović2 goals1 assists
Ujpest
- A. Matko4 goals2 assists
- E. Amenyido3 goals3 assists
- G. Vlijter2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.