Palermo vs Padova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Palermo 2-1 Padova.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Palermo, 28% draw, 29% Padova — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Palermo at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palermo vs Padova
Line-ups
- 14M. FortinG
- 27N. PierozziD
- 13M. BaniD
- 32P. CeccaroniD
- 3T. AugelloD
- 8J. SegreM
- 10F. RanocchiaM
- 9D. VavassoriM
- 5A. PalumboM
- 17D. JohnsenM
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 29P. PedaD
- 63N. BalagušsG
- 12M. NespolaG
- 36L. MazzitelliM
- 11E. GyasiD
- 6C. GomesM
- 99A. GabrielloniF
- 96G. MagnaniD
- 24N. EstévezM
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 27Alessandro DellavalleD
- 5M. LovatoD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 17A. CapelliM
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 8P. FusiM
- 34M. CocchiM
- 11A. SeghettiF
- 9L. MoroF
- 14M. PompettiM
- 1L. MouquetG
- 15K. LasagnaF
- 25N. GalazziM
- 72C. FaedoD
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 24L. CarissoniD
- 10G. CaprariF
- 20M. BortolussiF
Form going into Palermo vs Padova
Palermo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
- W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026
Padova
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Ascoli12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026
What these results say
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Palermo won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Padova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Padova had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palermo vs Padova
- 21 March 2026Padova 0–1 PalermoSerie B
- 27 December 2025Palermo 1–0 PadovaSerie B
- 12 June 2022Palermo 1–0 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
- 5 June 2022Padova 0–1 PalermoSerie C - Girone A
- 22 April 2019Palermo 1–1 PadovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Palermo and Padova
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen75
- D. Vavassori61
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palermo beat Padova 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Palermo at 43%. The goals: Christian Pastina 7' for Padova, Dominic Vavassori 44' for Palermo, Dominic Vavassori 83' for Palermo. Sent off: Lorenzo Carissoni (Padova) 90+1'.