Preußen Münster
vs
Verl
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Preußen Münster 2–1 Verl
The model makes it 41% Preußen Münster, 26% draw, 33% Verl — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Preußen Münster 1.66, Verl 1.44.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Preußen Münster's rating is built from 13 3. Liga matches and Verl's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Preußen Münster are 14th on 15 points from 13 games; Verl are 17th on 12 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
- Preußen Münster have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to MSV Duisburg.
- Verl have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Stuttgart II.
- Last 3 meetings: Verl 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 July 2025, ended Preußen Münster 1–0 Verl.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Preußen Münster vs Verl
Has the model earned this number?
Preußen Münster at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Preußen Münster vs Verl
Preußen Münster
3. Liga
- L1-2MSV Duisburg7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Alemannia Aachen1 November 2026
- W1-0Fortuna Köln25 October 2026
- L2-3away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach17 October 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
Verl
3. Liga
- L0-1away to Stuttgart II8 November 2026
- L1-4SV Wehen31 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC Viktoria Köln24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hoffenheim II18 October 2026
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
What these results say
- Preußen Münster scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Verl did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Verl conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Verl scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Preußen Münster | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 15 |
| 17 | Verl | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Preußen Münster
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 30% today
Verl
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 22% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Preußen Münster vs Verl
- 6 July 2025Preußen Münster 1–0 VerlFriendlies Clubs
- 12 May 2024Verl 2–0 Preussen Munster3. Liga
- 10 December 2023Preussen Munster 3–1 Verl3. Liga
Leading scorers: Preußen Münster and Verl
Preußen Münster
GoalsAssists
- F. Higl41
- Montell Ndikom40
Verl
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Preußen Münster the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Preußen Münster against 1.44 for Verl. Preußen Münster's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.92 for Verl.
How the model reaches 41% for Preußen Münster to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Preußen Münster to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Preußen Münster's ratings take away 2 points and Verl's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Preußen Münster's ratings43%−2
- Verl's ratings41%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Preußen Münster at home · Verl away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Preußen Münster 13, Verl 13.
Preußen Münster score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Verl have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Preußen Münster
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs SV Meppen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at Hansa Rostock19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 21%
- vs Würzburger Kickers16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 48%
Verl
- vs FC Ingolstadt 045 Dec · 3. Ligawin 42%
- at Hansa Rostock12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 25%
- vs Havelse19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 58%
- at FC Saarbrücken16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.