SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
vs
MSV Duisburg
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–2 MSV Duisburg
The model makes it 21% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 24% draw, 55% MSV Duisburg — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.07, MSV Duisburg 2.03.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: MSV Duisburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's rating is built from 13 3. Liga matches and MSV Duisburg's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are 18th on 12 points from 13 games; MSV Duisburg are 2nd on 29 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Hansa Rostock.
- MSV Duisburg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Preußen Münster.
- Last 6 meetings: MSV Duisburg 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 21 December 2019, ended SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–1 MSV Duisburg.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs MSV Duisburg
Has the model earned this number?
MSV Duisburg at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs MSV Duisburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
3. Liga
- L0-3away to Hansa Rostock7 November 2026
- L0-1Rot-Weiß Essen1 November 2026
- L1-7away to SV Wehen24 October 2026
- W3-2Preußen Münster17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Viktoria Köln14 October 2026
MSV Duisburg
3. Liga
- W2-1away to Preußen Münster7 November 2026
- D3-3Stuttgart II31 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0424 October 2026
- D1-1FC Viktoria Köln18 October 2026
- W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026
What these results say
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach had three goals or more.
- MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- MSV Duisburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for MSV Duisburg.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
| 2 | MSV Duisburg | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 87% today
MSV Duisburg
Chance to win the league · 41% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs MSV Duisburg
- 21 December 2019SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 20 July 2019MSV Duisburg 4–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 8 April 2017MSV Duisburg 2–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 29 October 2016SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 13 December 2014SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 2 August 2014MSV Duisburg 1–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
Leading scorers: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and MSV Duisburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
MSV Duisburg
GoalsAssists
- L. Lobinger44
- P. Remmert40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 0% chance of the title and MSV Duisburg 41.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MSV Duisburg the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach against 2.03 for MSV Duisburg. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.64 for MSV Duisburg.
How the model reaches 55% for MSV Duisburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MSV Duisburg to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's ratings add 12 points and MSV Duisburg's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's ratings41%+12
- MSV Duisburg's ratings55%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home · MSV Duisburg away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 13, MSV Duisburg 13.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); MSV Duisburg have let in 4 there.
MSV Duisburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- at Stuttgart II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 17%
- vs Alemannia Aachen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 24%
- at Würzburger Kickers19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 22%
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 28%
MSV Duisburg
- vs Waldhof Mannheim5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 58%
- at Rot-Weiß Essen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs Alemannia Aachen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 49%
- at Fortuna Köln16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.