Sporting CP B
vs
Amarante
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Sporting CP B 1–0 Amarante
The model makes it 54% Sporting CP B, 26% draw, 20% Amarante — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP B 1.71, Amarante 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Sporting CP B: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sporting CP B's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Amarante's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sporting CP B are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; Amarante are 14th on 9 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
- Sporting CP B are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tondela.
- Amarante have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Academica.
- Last 2 meetings: Sporting CP B 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2025, ended Sporting CP B 2–0 Amarante.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting CP B vs Amarante
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP B at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting CP B vs Amarante
Sporting CP B
Segunda Liga
- D1-1Tondela8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Leixoes31 October 2026
- W3-0Portimonense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vizela10 October 2026
- L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026
Amarante
Segunda Liga
- D1-1away to Academica7 November 2026
- W2-1FC Porto B31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Torreense26 October 2026
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP B scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amarante conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amarante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
| 14 | Amarante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sporting CP B
Chance to finish in the top three · 54% today
Amarante
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today
From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sporting CP B vs Amarante
- 17 May 2025Sporting CP B 2–0 AmaranteLiga 3
- 30 March 2025Amarante 0–1 Sporting CP BLiga 3
Leading scorers: Sporting CP B and Amarante
Sporting CP B
GoalsAssists
- Mauro Couto10
- Paulo Cardoso10
Amarante
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Cunha10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting CP B a 19.7% chance of the title and Amarante 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP B the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Sporting CP B against 0.83 for Amarante. Sporting CP B's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.57 for Amarante.
How the model reaches 54% for Sporting CP B to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting CP B to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sporting CP B's ratings add 5 points and Amarante's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Sporting CP B's ratings48%+5
- Amarante's ratings54%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sporting CP B at home · Amarante away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Sporting CP B 10, Amarante 10.
Sporting CP B score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Amarante have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sporting CP B
- at União de Leiria2 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- at Torreense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Academica13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 47%
- at FC Porto B20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
- at Benfica B27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 26%
Amarante
- vs AVS8 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Farense13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Chaves20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 47%
- at Penafiel27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.