11 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom I Liga prediction & result

Referee: P. Idzik
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Polonia Bytom.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Puszcza Niepołomice, 27% draw, 28% Polonia Bytom — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Puszcza Niepołomice at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Puszcza Niepołomice0%Draw5%Polonia Bytom95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

F. Szabaciuk
35'
37'
D. Konieczny
M. Cholewiak
40'
K. Stepien
49'
🔁A. Trubehaout: O. Gerstenstein
65'
🔁M. Cholewiakout: O. Korczakowski
78'
🔁A. Gjoniout: B. Kurzeja
78'
80'
🔁K. Orlikout: P. Stefanski
80'
🔁K. Wojtyraout: D. Rumin
83'
⚽D. Rumin
🔁F. Nascimentoout: I. Pieprzyca
84'
90+2'
🔁L. Zielinskiout: K. Michalski
90+2'
🔁M. Labojkoout: A. Malachowski

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Puszcza Niepołomice144281620-414
3Polonia Bytom146622420+424

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom

  • 18 April 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Polonia BytomI Liga
  • 4 October 2025Polonia Bytom 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 6 July 2024Puszcza Niepołomice 1–1 Polonia BytomFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Polonia Bytom won 1–0 at Puszcza Niepołomice. The model had leaned towards a win for Puszcza Niepołomice at 45% and given a win for Polonia Bytom 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: D. Rumin 83' for Polonia Bytom.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puszcza Niepołomice a 37.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.5% after a win, 40.0% after a draw, 45.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.5%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.

For Polonia Bytom the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.7% going in: 17.8% after a win, 24.6% after a draw, 30.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.8%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Puszcza Niepołomice v Polonia Bytom has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Puszcza Niepołomice's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Puszcza Niepołomice win45%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Polonia Bytom win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.