12 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie, Rzeszow
Referee: P. Pskit
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Stal Rzeszów 1-2 Lechia Gdansk.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Stal Rzeszów, 25% draw, 49% Lechia Gdansk — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lechia Gdansk at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stal Rzeszów0%Draw4%Lechia Gdansk96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
S. Kopasek
13'
D. Malov
30'
K. Dodaj
⚽S. Goss (pen)assist: S. Goss
31'
36'
⚽V. Blanutaassist: A. Shakh
40'
⚽T. Neugebauer (pen)assist: T. Neugebauer
40'
⚽D. Beskorovaynyiassist: D. Malov
🔁S. Salamonout: A. Buksa
46'
🔁O. Madejout: A. Naifi
46'
🔁M. Leniartout: W. Brzek
65'
🔁S. Pukalaout: M. Listkowski
65'
A. Buksa
65'
71'
🔁A. Shakhout: J. Mena
71'
🔁K. Dodajout: N. Hovhannisyan
⚽A. Buksaassist: S. Goss
77'
80'
🔁V. Blanutaout: M. Glogowski
M. Kaczor
82'
90+1'
🔁T. Wojtowiczout: J. Adkonis
90+1'
🔁T. Neugebauerout: B. Szczepankiewicz

Line-ups

Stal Rzeszów
  • 88M. Koziol
  • 21M. Thiede
  • 39M. Kaczor
  • 3V. Krasovskiy
  • 77K. Kukulka
  • 17O. Madej
  • 8S. Goss
  • 66M. Leniart
  • 27M. Rittmuller
  • 15S. Pukala
  • 76S. Salamon
Substitutes
  • 1S. Vanivskyi
  • 2W. Machura
  • 10A. Naifi
  • 11K. Masiak
  • 16W. Brzek
  • 29M. Listkowski
  • 40E. Wisniowski
  • 41D. Zieja
  • 44A. Buksa
Coach: Marek Zub
Lechia Gdansk
  • 1A. Holewinski
  • 19S. Kopasek
  • 4K. Lopata
  • 21D. Beskorovaynyi
  • 3D. Malov
  • 33T. Wojtowicz
  • 6H. Ivanov
  • 99T. Neugebauer
  • 7K. Dodaj
  • 97V. Blanuta
  • 13A. Shakh
Substitutes
  • 22S. Weirauch
  • 8J. Adkonis
  • 17I. Bambecki
  • 9M. Glogowski
  • 20N. Hovhannisyan
  • 40W. Madej
  • 30J. Mena
  • 88B. Szczepankiewicz
  • 23A. Ziolkowski
Coach: Vladyslav Lupashko

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Stal Rzeszów145361825-718
4Lechia Gdansk147162522+322

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk

  • 27 April 2024Stal Rzeszów 4–2 Lechia GdanskI Liga
  • 28 October 2023Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga

The result against the call

Lechia Gdansk won 2–1 at Stal Rzeszów. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lechia Gdansk at 49%. The goals: V. Blanuta 36' for Lechia Gdansk, D. Beskorovaynyi 40' for Lechia Gdansk, A. Buksa 77' for Stal Rzeszów.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stal Rzeszów a 26.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.9% after a win, 26.2% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.2%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For Lechia Gdansk the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 70.1% going in: 74.9% after a win, 67.0% after a draw, 63.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.9%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stal Rzeszów v Lechia Gdansk has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Lechia Gdansk's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Stal Rzeszów win26%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Lechia Gdansk win49%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.