Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rio Ave 0-4 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 44% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99E. van der GouwG
- 54G. LiavasD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 17M. VrousaiD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 5A. NtoiM
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 11J. BlesaM
- 77D. SpikicM
- 9TambleF
- 22K. ChamorroG
- 14J. BrabecD
- 20J. TomeD
- 24P. AmaralD
- 60CaikeD
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 79M. PatricioF
- 70A. WenckM
- 27T. MedinaM
- 1R. SilvaG
- 22I. FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 25G. InacioD
- 20M. AraujoD
- 5S. AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10G. CatamoM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 58F. GoncalvesM
- 97L. SuarezF
- 41Diego CallaiG
- 72E. QuaresmaD
- 50R. DiasD
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 55I. BaD
- 4S. AndersenM
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 9R. NelF
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
Form going into Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
Rio Ave
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
- L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026
- L0-1away to GIL Vicente9 August 2026
Sporting CP
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
- W3-2Guimaraes14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 7 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
- 11 May 2026Rio Ave 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 28 December 2025Sporting CP 4–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 22 April 2025Rio Ave 1–2 Sporting CPTaça de Portugal
- 3 April 2025Sporting CP 2–0 Rio AveTaça de Portugal
- 18 January 2025Rio Ave 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Sporting CP
Rio Ave
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP won 4–0 at Rio Ave. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Goncalves 5' for Sporting CP, G. Catamo 19' for Sporting CP, L. Suarez 26' for Sporting CP, L. Suarez 37' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 0.47–1.88.