28 August 2026, 19:15 UTC

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result

Vila do Conde
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Rio Ave 0-4 Sporting CP.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 44% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sporting CP at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rio Ave0%Draw1%Sporting CP99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽F. Goncalvesassist: I. Doumbia
19'
⚽G. Catamoassist: F. Goncalves
26'
⚽L. Suarez
37'
⚽L. Suarezassist: M. Araujo
51'
Luis Javier Suárez
Tamás Nikitscher
60'
65'
🔁I. Doumbiaout: S. Andersen
65'
🔁G. Catamoout: Luis Guilherme
65'
🔁F. Goncalvesout: F. Ioannidis
🔁Diogo Bezerraout: M. Sellouki
66'
🔁T. Nikitscherout: A. Wenck
74'
🔁D. Spikicout: R. Galcik
74'
81'
🔁R. Zalazarout: N. Irankunda
🔁J. Blesaout: Caike
86'
🔁M. Vrousaiout: M. Patricio
86'
86'
🔁L. Suarezout: J. Derry

Match stats — Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

39%Possession61%
6Shots15
0On target7
2Corners3
0.47xG1.88

Goals against chances

Rio Ave0 from 0.47 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sporting CP4 from 1.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 54G. LiavasD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 17M. VrousaiD
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 5A. NtoiM
  • 7Diogo Bezerra
  • 11J. BlesaM
  • 77D. SpikicM
  • 9TambleF
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 14J. BrabecD
  • 20J. TomeD
  • 24P. AmaralD
  • 60CaikeD
  • 19M. SelloukiM
  • 79M. PatricioF
  • 70A. WenckM
  • 27T. MedinaM
Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SilvaG
  • 22I. FresnedaD
  • 6Z. DebastD
  • 25G. InacioD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5S. AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10G. CatamoM
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 58F. GoncalvesM
  • 97L. SuarezF
Substitutes
  • 41Diego CallaiG
  • 72E. QuaresmaD
  • 50R. DiasD
  • 13G. VagiannidisD
  • 55I. BaD
  • 4S. AndersenM
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 9R. NelF
  • 31Luis GuilhermeF
Coach: Rui Borges

Form going into Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Rio Ave

  • W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
  • L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026

Sporting CP

  • W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
  • W3-2Vitória SC14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Rio Ave6114514-94
3Sporting CP6420156+914

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

  • 28 August 2026Rio Ave 0–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 11 May 2026Rio Ave 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 28 December 2025Sporting CP 4–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 22 April 2025Rio Ave 1–2 Sporting CPTaça de Portugal
  • 3 April 2025Sporting CP 2–0 Rio AveTaça de Portugal
  • 18 January 2025Rio Ave 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Sporting CP

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Sporting CP

  • L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
  • Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
  • F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.