Radnik Surdulica vs Macva Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: Radnik Surdulica 2-1 Macva.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Radnik Surdulica, 26% draw, 23% Macva — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnik Surdulica at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radnik Surdulica vs Macva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99S. Randjelovic
- 66M. GasicD
- 37S. Abubakar
- 6D. Stojanovic
- 2T. SonhaD
- 5M. PopovicM
- 28A. PejovicM
- 47E. QuarshieM
- 30M. NovakovicM
- 20L. JovanovicM
- 9V. BogdanovicF
- 23L. RadojicicG
- 22U. LazicD
- 45Rafael PonteloD
- 21U. FilipovicD
- 3L. ZoricD
- 7D. StojanovicM
- 25T. LakicF
- 11T. KljunF
- 44A. MilicevicF
- 12K. RakonicG
- 4V. IlicD
- 19I. RistivojevicD
- 15S. SladojevicD
- 17N. LainovicD
- 22K. Tojcic
- 5D. TerzicM
- 11V. RakicM
- 30D. DjordjicM
- 27L. PejovicM
- 9M. VidakovF
- 89V. JovanovicG
- 88M. SavicG
- 33U. BlagojevicD
- 44N. StevanovicD
- 35I. KoneD
- 8B. VrastanovicM
- 21D. KaranovicM
- 10M. ErgelasF
- 99N. DelibasicF
Form going into Radnik Surdulica vs Macva
Radnik Surdulica
- L1-2away to Vojvodina9 August 2026
Macva
- W1-0IMT Novi Beograd9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Radnik Surdulica | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Macva | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnik Surdulica vs Macva
- 15 August 2026Radnik Surdulica 2–1 MacvaSuper Liga
- 28 April 2025Radnik Surdulica 4–0 MacvaPrva Liga
- 8 December 2024Radnik Surdulica 1–0 MacvaPrva Liga
- 25 August 2024Macva 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaPrva Liga
- 29 April 2021Macva 0–5 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 20 November 2020Radnik Surdulica 3–0 MacvaSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Radnik Surdulica and Macva
Radnik Surdulica
- V. Bogdanović3 goals
- M. Novaković2 goals1 assists
Macva
- M. Vidakov3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.