14 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Real Sociedad II vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Anoeta, San Sebastian
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Real Sociedad II 0-1 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Real Sociedad II, 28% draw, 48% Castellón — fair odds of 4.17, 3.57 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Castellón at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Sociedad II0%Draw3%Castellón97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽O. Camara
Jon Garro
57'
58'
Diego Barri
60'
Adam Jakobsen
🔁D. Diazout: A. Mariezkurrena
66'
66'
🔁A. Jakobsenout: A. Gala
66'
🔁P. Santiagoout: I. Cordoba
🔁I. Calderonout: J. Balda
73'
🔁I. Aguirreout: J. Eceizabarrena
73'
78'
🔁Barriout: M. Doue
78'
🔁R. Sanchezout: H. Bellari
83'
Íñigo Cordoba
🔁G. Carreraout: E. Orobengoa
83'
🔁G. Gorosabelout: J. Soroeta
83'
Unax Agote
86'
87'
🔁Alvaroout: J. Vlak
90+2'
Jari Vlak

Match stats — Real Sociedad II vs Castellón

41%Possession59%
4Shots13
1On target5
5Corners8

Line-ups

Real Sociedad II 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FragaG
  • 2J. GarroD
  • 15I. CalderonD
  • 5K. KitaD
  • 23U. AgoteD
  • 14T. CarbonellM
  • 8I. AguirreM
  • 7D. DiazM
  • 16G. GorosabelM
  • 17L. AstiazaranM
  • 18G. CarreraF
Substitutes
  • 32L. OlasagastiG
  • 3J. BaldaD
  • 21J. EceizabarrenaM
  • 30A. Unax
  • 26B. IsasaD
  • 31O. TelletxeaM
  • 10A. MariezkurrenaF
  • 9E. OrobengoaF
  • 19J. SoroetaF
Coach: Ion Ansotegi
Castellón 3-4-3
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5A. JimenezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 18P. SantiagoM
  • 21AlvaroM
  • 8BarriM
  • 2Juanjo NietoM
  • 16A. JakobsenF
  • 9O. CamaraF
  • 7R. SanchezF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SaipiG
  • 6M. DoueM
  • 12L. AlcazarD
  • 10I. SueroM
  • 17F. CastilloM
  • 23A. Garcia
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 25J. VlakM
  • 14I. CordobaM
Coach: Pablo Hernandez

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Real Sociedad II522186+28
1Castellón541072+513

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Castellón

  • 14 August 2026Real Sociedad II 0–1 CastellónSegunda División
  • 7 March 2026Real Sociedad II 4–2 CastellónSegunda División
  • 15 November 2025Castellón 5–4 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
  • 27 May 2023Real Sociedad II 1–1 CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
  • 17 December 2022Castellón 1–1 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 2

Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Castellón

Real Sociedad II

  • Gorka Gorosabel2 goals1 assists
  • Dani Díaz1 goals2 assists

Castellón

  • Ousmane Camara2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.