14 August 2026, 19:15 UTC

Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Primeira Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Sporting CP 3-2 Guimaraes.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% Sporting CP, 17% draw, 14% Guimaraes — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sporting CP at 69% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting CP97%Draw3%Guimaraes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽F. Goncalvesassist: F. Ioannidis
9'
⚽F. Ioannidisassist: G. Catamo
22'
Sergi Altimira
24'
26'
Thiago Balieiro
38'
Óscar Rivas
⚽S. Altimiraassist: F. Ioannidis
41'
46'
🔁Magaout: T. Strata
46'
🔁Beniout: L. Doucet
46'
🔁O. Camaraout: M. Nogueira
Geny Catamo
55'
64'
Miguel Nogueira
🔁F. Goncalvesout: L. Suarez
66'
🔁G. Catamoout: Luis Guilherme
66'
66'
⚽Samuassist: M. Nogueira
68'
⚽A. Ndoyeassist: T. Strata
Eduardo Quaresma
69'
🔁F. Ioannidisout: J. Derry
75'
77'
🔁G. Nogueiraout: S. Verdi
78'
Gustavo Silva
🔁G. Vagiannidisout: I. Fresneda
83'
88'
🔁Samuout: P. Ouotro
Gonçalo Inácio
90+1'

Match stats — Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

56%Possession0%
5Shots0
3On target0
5Corners0
1.12xG0

Line-ups

Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SilvaG
  • 13G. VagiannidisD
  • 72E. QuaresmaD
  • 25G. InacioD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5S. AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10G. CatamoM
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 58F. GoncalvesM
  • 7F. IoannidisF
Substitutes
  • 12J. VirginiaG
  • 50R. DiasD
  • 6Z. DebastD
  • 22I. FresnedaD
  • 55I. BaD
  • 4S. AndersenM
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 73E. FelicissimoM
  • 28J. DerryF
Coach: Rui Borges

Form going into Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

Sporting CP

  • D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026

Guimaraes

  • L0-1Arouca8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

  • 14 August 2026Sporting CP 3–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 4 May 2026Sporting CP 5–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 6 January 2026Sporting CP 1–2 Vitória SCTaça da Liga
  • 23 December 2025Vitória SC 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 17 May 2025Sporting CP 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
  • 3 January 2025Vitória SC 4–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Guimaraes

Sporting CP

  • L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
  • Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
  • F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists

Guimaraes

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.