Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 0-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Real Sociedad, 27% draw, 26% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 14T. KuboM
- 10Mikel OyarzabalM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 19M. SarrD
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 12J. OchiengF
- 24L. SučićM
- 23A. ZakharyanM
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 22Héctor FortD
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 13I. RaduG
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 28Andrés AntañónF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 1A. BayındırG
- 4A. FayeD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 22Javi GalánD
- 16Hugo GonzálezM
- 30H. BurcioM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
- 24C. DriouechF
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026
Celta Vigo
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
- 3 September 2026Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 25 January 2026Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 19 October 2025Celta Vigo 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 13 May 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 21 December 2024Celta Vigo 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 23 January 2024Celta Vigo 1–2 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad
- L. Sučić2 goals
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.