Real Betis vs Real Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Betis 1-0 Real Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Real Betis, 29% draw, 35% Real Madrid — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 3Diego LlorenteD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 6F. BernalM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 7AntonyM
- 22IscoM
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 9C. HernándezF
- 18N. DeossaM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 40A. de PabloG
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 23Junior FirpoD
- 16V. GómezD
- 31Manu GonzálezG
- 14Iker LosadaF
- 27J. A. MoranteF
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 15A. GülerM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 25Y. DiomandeF
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 33Mario RivasD
- 31Javier NavarroG
- 38S. MartinezM
- 13A. LuninG
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 21Brahim DíazM
Form going into Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Real Betis
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026
Real Madrid
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Real Madrid
- 4 September 2026Real Betis 1–0 Real MadridLa Liga
- 24 April 2026Real Betis 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
- 4 January 2026Real Madrid 5–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 1 March 2025Real Betis 2–1 Real MadridLa Liga
- 1 September 2024Real Madrid 2–0 Real BetisLa Liga
- 25 May 2024Real Madrid 0–0 Real BetisLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Betis and Real Madrid
Real Betis
- Rodrigo Riquelme2 goals
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé7 goals2 assists
- J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.