Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 3-4 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sturm Graz, 28% draw, 39% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Red Bull Salzburg at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. HelacG
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 28J. HeilM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 27L. BalboM
- 19S. SeidlM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 20S. JattaF
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 1Adam StejskalG
- 5A. VallciD
- 17S. WłodarczykF
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 32A. BarryM
- 5S. DiabatéM
- 23D. RedzicM
- 15B. MazurekM
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 20E. BaidooF
- 91A. ChaseD
- 30G. DiakitéF
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 19K. KonatéF
- 22S. LainerD
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 48L. TraoréD
- 11Y. VertessenF
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 November 2026
- D2-2Ried25 October 2026
- W6-1Grazer AK18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga
- W5-1Austria Lustenau1 November 2026
- W3-1away to Lask Linz25 October 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sturm Graz scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 19 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
Red Bull Salzburg won the last one 4–3 on 8 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| Sturm Graz | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 8 Nov 2026
BundesligaSturm Graz 3–4 Red Bull Salzburg - 20 Sep 2026
BundesligaRed Bull Salzburg 3–0 Sturm Graz - 3 May 2026
BundesligaRed Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm Graz - 20 Mar 2026
BundesligaSturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg - 9 Nov 2025
BundesligaSturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg - 20 Sep 2025
BundesligaRed Bull Salzburg 0–2 Sturm Graz - 9 May 2025
BundesligaSturm Graz 4–2 Red Bull Salzburg
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Red Bull Salzburg's attack rates 21% above Sturm Graz's, and Red Bull Salzburg concede 16% fewer than Sturm Graz. That gives Red Bull Salzburg the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 0.98 | 1.03 |
| Sturm Graz | 0.81 | 1.23 |
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité90
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković80
- K. Konaté40
- Y. Vertessen33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Red Bull Salzburg won 4–3 at Sturm Graz. The model had made a win for Red Bull Salzburg its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Haris Tabaković 5' for Red Bull Salzburg, Oumar Diakité 14' for Sturm Graz, Oumar Diakité 18' for Sturm Graz, Leandro Morgalla 29' for Red Bull Salzburg, Damir Redzic 67' for Red Bull Salzburg, Jon Gorenc Stanković 70' for Sturm Graz, Jesper Lindstrom 74' for Red Bull Salzburg. Sent off: Danny Röhl (Red Bull Salzburg) 32'. On expected goals it finished 0.97–2.15.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Red Bull Salzburg a 30.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 39.3% after a win, 28.4% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.3%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Red Bull Salzburg's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Sturm Graz win33%▼ −4
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Red Bull Salzburg win39%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.