Lorient vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Lorient, 30% draw, 33% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lorient at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lorient vs Toulouse
Line-ups
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 20D. SyllaD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 77P. KatserisM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 72N. MbambaM
- 43K. KouassiM
- 33G. BernardeauM
- 17J. MakengoM
- 18I. BaldéF
- 19S. FayeF
- 2A. GeorgenD
- 21B. KamaraG
- 42M. KoneF
- 55N. ObaretinD
- 10I. JensenF
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 62A. AvomM
- 15A. TosinF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 12C. TapéD
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 9S. HidalgoM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 37Y. AziziM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 1T. CollinG
- 94I. DialloD
- 6A. VossahM
- 19D. OdoguD
- 11S. OppongF
- 14N. SigurM
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 7Julián VignoloF
Form going into Lorient vs Toulouse
Lorient
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026
Toulouse
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
- L0-2Lyon22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Toulouse
- 21 March 2026Toulouse 1–0 LorientLigue 1
- 9 November 2025Lorient 1–1 ToulouseLigue 1
- 28 April 2024Lorient 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 3 December 2023Toulouse 1–1 LorientLigue 1
- 23 April 2023Lorient 0–1 ToulouseLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lorient and Toulouse
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lorient and Toulouse drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lorient at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ibrahima Balde 37' for Lorient, Noah Mbamba 39' for Lorient, Casper Tengstedt 48' for Toulouse, Thomas Jorgensen 68' for Toulouse.
How the call on Lorient v Toulouse has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Lorient's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Lorient win37%▼ −2
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Toulouse win33%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.