12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lorient vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Lorient, 30% draw, 33% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lorient at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lorient4%Draw93%Toulouse3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Panos Katseris
17'
⚽Ibrahima Baldeassist: Panos Katseris
37'
⚽Noah Mbambaassist: Panos Katseris
39'
45'
🔁Rafik Messaliout: Niko Sigur
45'
🔁Santiago Hidalgoout: Casper Tengstedt
48'
⚽Casper Tengstedtassist: Cristian Casseres
🔁Panos Katserisout: Théo Le Bris
58'
🔁Gabin Bernardeauout: Isak Jensen
58'
67'
🔁Ilyas Aziziout: Sion Oppong
68'
⚽Thomas Jorgensenassist: Cristian Casseres
🔁Ibrahima Baldeout: Mamadou Kone
69'
🔁Noah Mbambaout: Arthur Avom
69'
84'
🔁Niklas Schmidtout: Alexis Vossah
84'
🔁Christ Tapeout: Ismaïl Diallo

Match stats — Lorient vs Toulouse

41%Possession59%
10Shots13
3On target4
4Corners3

Line-ups

Lorient 3-4-2-1
  • 38Y. MvogoG
  • 20D. SyllaD
  • 3M. TalbiD
  • 32N. AdjeiD
  • 77P. KatserisM
  • 8N. CadiouM
  • 72N. MbambaM
  • 43K. KouassiM
  • 33G. BernardeauM
  • 17J. MakengoM
  • 18I. BaldéF
Substitutes
  • 19S. FayeF
  • 2A. GeorgenD
  • 21B. KamaraG
  • 42M. KoneF
  • 55N. ObaretinD
  • 10I. JensenF
  • 11T. Le BrisM
  • 62A. AvomM
  • 15A. TosinF
Coach: A. Dujeux
Toulouse 4-2-3-1
  • 60M. NifloreG
  • 22R. MessaliD
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 12C. TapéD
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 23C. CásseresM
  • 9S. HidalgoM
  • 8T. JørgensenM
  • 37Y. AziziM
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
Substitutes
  • 18M. AmougouM
  • 1T. CollinG
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 6A. VossahM
  • 19D. OdoguD
  • 11S. OppongF
  • 14N. SigurM
  • 20C. TengstedtF
  • 7Julián VignoloF
Coach: Jens Berthel Askou

Form going into Lorient vs Toulouse

Lorient

  • W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
  • L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Nice22 August 2026

Toulouse

  • L0-1Lille3 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
  • L0-2Lyon22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Lorient41214405
17Toulouse402247-32

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lorient vs Toulouse

  • 12 September 2026Lorient 2–2 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 21 March 2026Toulouse 1–0 LorientLigue 1
  • 9 November 2025Lorient 1–1 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 28 April 2024Lorient 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
  • 3 December 2023Toulouse 1–1 LorientLigue 1
  • 23 April 2023Lorient 0–1 ToulouseLigue 1
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.