28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Rodez vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Rodez 2-2 PAU.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% Rodez, 17% draw, 15% PAU — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rodez at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rodez8%Draw89%PAU3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽B. Leyeassist: J. Benet
Raphaël Lipinski
3'
⚽I. Baldeassist: R. Lipinski
28'
37'
⚽B. Leyeassist: A. Briancon
45+3'
Hacene Benali
59'
🔁A. Abdallahout: S. Basse
59'
🔁B. Leyeout: A. Lefebvre
🔁R. Pontiout: E. Jean-Lambert
64'
🔁C. Issanchouout: S. Luyambula
64'
🔁M. Touhoout: K. Nagera
64'
64'
🔁L. Rajotout: L. Gadegbeku
68'
🔁A. Brianconout: G. Paquiez
68'
🔁H. Benaliout: A. Mbaye
Loni Laurent
70'
🔁D. Pavlovicout: O. Joly
72'
⚽O. Jolyassist: M. Magnin
83'
🔁L. Laurentout: N. Nsingi
85'
Mathis Magnin
89'

Match stats — Rodez vs PAU

58%Possession42%
10Shots14
5On target2
5Corners3

Line-ups

Rodez 5-3-2
  • 16L. MargueronG
  • 13C. IssanchouD
  • 24L. Laurent
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 8D. PavlovicM
  • 29A. Cartillier
  • 18I. BaldeF
  • 11M. TouhoF
Substitutes
  • 30E. CrombezG
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 17D. Vangi
  • 28S. LuyambulaD
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 26S. BenchammaM
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 9N. NsingiF
Coach: Didier Santini
PAU 5-3-2
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 88A. BambaD
  • 23A. BrianconD
  • 97A. AbdallahD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 7H. BenaliF
  • 9B. LeyeF
Substitutes
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 19T. SaettelF
  • 14R. Openda
  • 56A. MbayeF
Coach: Thierry Debes

Form going into Rodez vs PAU

Rodez

All competitions we cover

  • W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Annecy14 August 2026
  • W3-1Laval8 August 2026

PAU

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026
  • L0-1Annecy8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Rodez124171723-613
5PAU126241613+320

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodez vs PAU

  • 3 January 2026PAU 3–3 RodezLigue 2
  • 26 September 2025Rodez 1–2 PAULigue 2
  • 14 February 2025PAU 0–5 RodezLigue 2
  • 6 December 2024Rodez 1–0 PAULigue 2
  • 3 August 2024Rodez 1–4 PAUFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rodez and PAU

Rodez

GoalsAssists

  • I. Baldé50

PAU

GoalsAssists

  • B. Leye41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rodez and PAU drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rodez at 68% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: B. Leye 2' for PAU, I. Balde 28' for Rodez, B. Leye 37' for PAU, O. Joly 83' for Rodez.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.