Rodez vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Rodez 2-2 PAU.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Rodez, 17% draw, 15% PAU — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rodez at 68% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rodez vs PAU
Rodez
- W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Annecy14 August 2026
PAU
- L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rodez | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | PAU | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rodez vs PAU
- 3 January 2026PAU 3–3 RodezLigue 2
- 26 September 2025Rodez 1–2 PAULigue 2
- 14 February 2025PAU 0–5 RodezLigue 2
- 6 December 2024Rodez 1–0 PAULigue 2
- 3 August 2024Rodez 1–4 PAUFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Rodez and PAU
Rodez
- I. Baldé5 goals
- C. Roubiou2 goals
- O. Joly2 goals
PAU
- B. Leye3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.