28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Lille 2-2 Paris Saint Germain.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lille, 28% draw, 33% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lille at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lille99%Draw1%Paris Saint Germain0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. Haraldssonassist: O. Giroud
21'
39'
Fabián Ruiz
46'
🔁D. Doueout: K. Kvaratskhelia
Benjamin André
52'
🔁B. Andreout: N. Mukau
61'
🔁F. Correiaout: G. Perrin
61'
63'
🔁L. Beraldoout: M. Godts
🔁E. Mbappeout: D. Bakwa
68'
72'
🔁F. Ruizout: L. Digne
72'
🔁F. Torresout: S. Mayulu
78'
🔁M. Aklioucheout: D. Fernandez
🔁H. Haraldssonout: C. Verdonk
80'
⚽D. Bakwaassist: O. Giroud
84'
Romain Perraud
90+4'
90'
⚽Vitinhaassist: M. Godts
90'
⚽Marquinhosassist: Vitinha

Match stats — Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

27%Possession73%
9Shots18
4On target4
0Corners5
1.09xG1.29

Goals against chances

Lille2 from 1.09 xGmore than the chances were worth
Paris Saint Germain2 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lille 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OzerG
  • 22T. SantosD
  • 3N. NgoyD
  • 4AlexsandroD
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 21B. AndreM
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 8E. MbappeM
  • 10H. HaraldssonM
  • 27F. CorreiaM
  • 9O. GiroudF
Substitutes
  • 16A. BodartG
  • 26I. CossierD
  • 24C. VerdonkD
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 18D. BakwaF
  • 11O. SahraouiF
  • 19B. OnalF
  • 35S. DiaouneF
  • 28G. PerrinF
Coach: Davide Ancelotti
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
  • 39M. SafonovG
  • 2A. HakimiD
  • 5MarquinhosD
  • 51W. PachoD
  • 33W. Zaire-EmeryD
  • 17VitinhaM
  • 4L. BeraldoM
  • 8F. RuizM
  • 11M. AklioucheF
  • 9F. TorresF
  • 14D. DoueF
Substitutes
  • 30L. ChevalierG
  • 16A. LongoniG
  • 12L. DigneD
  • 21L. HernandezD
  • 6I. ZabarnyiD
  • 24S. MayuluM
  • 27D. FernandezM
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaF
  • 22M. GodtsF
Coach: Enrique Luis

Form going into Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

Lille

  • W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026

Paris Saint Germain

  • D2-2away to Rennes23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lille431072+510
8Paris Saint Germain41216605

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

  • 28 August 2026Lille 2–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 16 January 2026Paris Saint Germain 3–0 LilleLigue 1
  • 5 October 2025Lille 1–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 1 March 2025Paris Saint Germain 4–1 LilleLigue 1
  • 1 September 2024Lille 1–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
  • 10 February 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 LilleLigue 1

Leading scorers: Lille and Paris Saint Germain

Lille

  • Tiago Santos2 goals
  • O. Giroud1 goals2 assists

Paris Saint Germain

  • Ferran Torres3 goals
  • Marquinhos2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.