Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lille 2-2 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lille, 28% draw, 33% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lille at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lille vs Paris Saint Germain
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. OzerG
- 22T. SantosD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4AlexsandroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 21B. AndreM
- 6N. BentalebM
- 8E. MbappeM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 27F. CorreiaM
- 9O. GiroudF
- 16A. BodartG
- 26I. CossierD
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 17N. MukauM
- 18D. BakwaF
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 19B. OnalF
- 35S. DiaouneF
- 28G. PerrinF
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 33W. Zaire-EmeryD
- 17VitinhaM
- 4L. BeraldoM
- 8F. RuizM
- 11M. AklioucheF
- 9F. TorresF
- 14D. DoueF
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 16A. LongoniG
- 12L. DigneD
- 21L. HernandezD
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 24S. MayuluM
- 27D. FernandezM
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 22M. GodtsF
Form going into Lille vs Paris Saint Germain
Lille
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Rennes23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain
- 16 January 2026Paris Saint Germain 3–0 LilleLigue 1
- 5 October 2025Lille 1–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 1 March 2025Paris Saint Germain 4–1 LilleLigue 1
- 1 September 2024Lille 1–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 10 February 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 LilleLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lille and Paris Saint Germain
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lille and Paris Saint Germain drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lille at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: H. Haraldsson 21' for Lille, D. Bakwa 84' for Lille, Vitinha 90' for Paris Saint Germain, Marquinhos 90' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 1.09–1.29.