12 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rosenborg vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result

Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim
Full time5 – 3

Final score: Rosenborg 5-3 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Rosenborg, 27% draw, 25% Tromso — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rosenborg at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ole Selnaes
3'
⚽Amin Chiakha
5'
⚽Noah Sahsah
34'
42'
Vegard Erlien
⚽Aslak Fonn Witryassist: Ole Selnaes
43'
45'
🔁Sander Håvik Innværout: Isak·Dahlqvist
⚽Noah Sahsahassist: Mads Bomholt
47'
49'
David Edvardsson
60'
🔁David Edvardssonout: Lars Olden Larsen
60'
🔁Morten Bjorloout: Jesper Andreas Grundt
🔁Emil Konradsen Ceideout: Mathias Ullereng Kjolo
66'
70'
🔁Vegard Erlienout: Troy Engseth Nyhammer
71'
⚽Troy Engseth Nyhammerassist: Heine Asen Larsen
Leopold Wahlstedt
73'
75'
⚽Heine Asen Larsen (pen)
🔁Amin Chiakhaout: Maciej Soboczynski
75'
🔁Aslak Fonn Witryout: Jonas Sogaard Mortensen
75'
🔁Simen Bolkan Nordliout: David Duris
75'
77'
⚽Ole Selnaes (OG)
🔁Noah Sahsahout: Tobias Solheim Dahl
81'
Maciej Soboczynski
86'
88'
🔁Leon Hienout: Vince Osuji
90+3'
Vince Osuji

Match stats — Rosenborg vs Tromso

54%Possession46%
20Shots15
10On target9
4Corners4

Line-ups

Rosenborg 4-4-2
  • 1L. WahlstedtG
  • 16A. WitryD
  • 4M. CeïdeD
  • 21T. NemčíkD
  • 19A. PereiraD
  • 11N. SahsahM
  • 17M. BomholtM
  • 10O. SelnæsM
  • 7S. NordliM
  • 18Amin ChiakhaF
  • 35E. CeïdeF
Substitutes
  • 3T. SolheimD
  • 29D. ĎurišF
  • 6M. KjøløM
  • 23M. MampassiD
  • 15J. MortensenD
  • 14J. Reitan-SundeF
  • 12R. SandbergG
  • 30M. SoboczynskiF
  • 5H. VoldenD
Coach: Freyr Alexandersson
Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 29A. WarnerydD
  • 30I. VådebuD
  • 21L. HienD
  • 33M. JattaD
  • 37S. InnværD
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 70M. BjørloM
  • 15V. ErlienF
  • 22H. LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 17I. DahlqvistM
  • 7L. Olden LarsenF
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 27M. MikkelsenM
  • 10T. NyhammerM
  • 24V. OsujiD
  • 8J. GrundtM
  • 19L. Olden LarsenM
  • 40Elias MolundD
Coach: J. Vik

Form going into Rosenborg vs Tromso

Rosenborg

  • W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
  • L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
  • W2-1Viking14 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Lillestrom9 August 2026

Tromso

  • L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
  • D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
  • W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Rosenborg209383629+730
4Tromso2010553727+1035

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Tromso

  • 12 September 2026Rosenborg 5–3 TromsoEliteserien
  • 6 April 2026Tromso 2–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 22 November 2025Tromso 1–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 27 July 2025Rosenborg 4–1 TromsoEliteserien
  • 4 August 2024Rosenborg 1–0 TromsoEliteserien
  • 20 May 2024Tromso 3–2 RosenborgEliteserien

Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Tromso

Rosenborg

  • Amin Chiakha12 goals3 assists
  • E. Ceïde5 goals5 assists

Tromso

  • H. Larsen9 goals3 assists
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.