Santos vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 1-1 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Santos, 22% draw, 35% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.33, 4.55 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santos vs Mirassol
Santos
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
Mirassol
- L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Mirassol
- 11 March 2026Mirassol 2–2 SantosSerie A
- 20 November 2025Santos 1–1 MirassolSerie A
- 19 July 2025Mirassol 3–0 SantosSerie A
- 17 January 2025Santos 2–1 MirassolPaulista - A1
- 12 October 2024Santos 3–2 MirassolSerie B
- 26 June 2024Mirassol 0–0 SantosSerie B
Leading scorers: Santos and Mirassol
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa10 goals2 assists
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.