Coritiba vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 2-1 Corinthians.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Coritiba, 28% draw, 44% Corinthians — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Corinthians at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Coritiba vs Corinthians
Coritiba
- D1-1away to Sao Paulo16 August 2026
Corinthians
- L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Corinthians
- 12 March 2026Corinthians 0–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 7 December 2023Coritiba 0–2 CorinthiansSerie A
- 13 August 2023Corinthians 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 8 November 2022Coritiba 2–2 CorinthiansSerie A
- 21 July 2022Corinthians 3–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 26 November 2020Coritiba 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Corinthians
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assists
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.