23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC

Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result

Arena Condá, Chapecó
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Chapecoense 1-0 Sao Paulo.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Chapecoense, 26% draw, 38% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sao Paulo at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo

Chapecoense

  • D3-3Bahia16 August 2026

Sao Paulo

  • D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense2638152852-2417
12Sao Paulo2696113130+133

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo

  • 12 March 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 3 October 2021Chapecoense 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 16 June 2021Sao Paulo 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 3 November 2019Chapecoense 0–3 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 22 July 2019Sao Paulo 4–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 2 December 2018Chapecoense 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A

Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Sao Paulo

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Sao Paulo

  • Luciano8 goals2 assists
  • J. Calleri7 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.