Vitoria vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 0-2 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Vitoria, 26% draw, 52% Bahia — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vitoria vs Bahia
Vitoria
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
Bahia
- D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Bahia
- 11 March 2026Bahia 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 7 March 2026Bahia 2–1 VitoriaBaiano - 1
- 25 January 2026Vitoria 0–1 BahiaBaiano - 1
- 17 October 2025Vitoria 2–1 BahiaSerie A
- 18 May 2025Bahia 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 23 March 2025Vitoria 1–1 BahiaBaiano - 1
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Bahia
Vitoria
- Rene8 goals1 assists
Bahia
- Luciano Juba9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.