Groningen vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Groningen 2-1 Utrecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Groningen, 26% draw, 37% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Groningen at 37% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Groningen vs Utrecht
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Etienne VaessenG
- 14Jorg SchreudersD
- 3Thijmen BlokzijlD
- 5Marco RenteD
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 8Tika de JongeM
- 18Tygo LandM
- 17David van der WerffM
- 26Thom van BergenM
- 24Pelle ClementM
- 9Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonF
- 15Elvis Van der LaanD
- 29Tyrique MerceraD
- 7Travis HernesM
- 34Ryan MetuF
- 31Rijk JanseG
- 13Lovro ŠtubljarG
- 42Jesper MosselaarD
- 12Nikolas BrandisD
- 53Jahelille HallM
- 25Michael BrouwerG
- 23Niklas VesterlundD
- 2Siebe HoremansD
- 44Mike EerdhuijzenD
- 92Arthur ZagreD
- 20Dani De WitM
- 8Joris van OvereemM
- 53Ferdinand PohlM
- 11Ángel AlarcónF
- 9David MinF
- 10Yoann CathlineF
- 34Davy van den BergM
- 14Zidane IqbalM
- 15Adrian BlakeF
- 6Guus OfferhausD
- 30Kevin ParedesM
- 33Kevin GadellaaG
- 32Per KloosterboerD
- 47Emmanuel OwenF
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Utrecht
- 9 August 2026Groningen 2–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 14 February 2026Groningen 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 14 September 2025Utrecht 0–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 13 April 2025Utrecht 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 20 October 2024Groningen 0–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 7 April 2023Groningen 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Utrecht
Groningen
- B. Willumsson4 goals
- T. van Bergen3 goals2 assists
Utrecht
- Artem Stepanov5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.