SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg DFB Pokal prediction & result
Final score: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-4 FC Augsburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 8% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 13% draw, 79% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 12.50, 7.69 and 1.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-3.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Augsburg at 79%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. ReuleG
- 8Jan Elias RahnD
- 15A. AidonisD
- 25A. NurajD
- 21L. MolinariD
- 11T. RossmannM
- 16M. KundeM
- 5Volkan CeliktasM
- 27Loris MaierM
- 18N. PollexF
- 23F. EiseleF
- 4F. BleicherM
- 13N. ZografakisF
- 19M. UhlD
- 10L. StoppelM
- 33T. SchulzG
- 6C. MistlM
- 20Leon MaierD
- 36M. GashiD
- 9Marlon Freddy FaßF
- 1F. DahmenG
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 14Y. KeitelD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 7Seol Young-WooM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 10M. KömürM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 38Loris HusicM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 30A. KadeM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 37T. SchnitzerM
- 27M. WolfD
Form going into SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs FC Augsburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
3. Liga
- L1-7away to SV Wehen24 October 2026
- W3-2Preußen Münster17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Viktoria Köln14 October 2026
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- D1-1Union Berlin24 October 2026
- L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and FC Augsburg in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 3. Liga | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: 3. Liga · Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and FC Augsburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Augsburg won 4–2 at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. The model had made a win for FC Augsburg its most likely outcome, at 79%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Rodrigo Ribeiro 13' for FC Augsburg, Rodrigo Ribeiro 21' for FC Augsburg, Luca Damiano Molinari 22' for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, V. Celiktas 46' for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, Arijon Ibrahimovic 69' for FC Augsburg, Anton Kade 74' for FC Augsburg. On expected goals it finished 0.78–1.52.
How the call on SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v FC Augsburg has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 8% / 17% / 75% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 8% / 13% / 79%: the biggest move is FC Augsburg's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win8%=
- Draw13%▼ −4
- FC Augsburg win79%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.