Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 Hamburger SV.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Eintracht Frankfurt, 24% draw, 24% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Eintracht Frankfurt at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. AtuboluG
- 2Elias BaumD
- 4R. KochD
- 3L. BrassierD
- 26K. KosugiD
- 25R. OnyedikaM
- 15N. Aséko NkiliM
- 20R. DōanM
- 42C. UzunM
- 8F. ChaïbiM
- 11Y. EbnoutalibF
- 29A. AmaimouniF
- 9J. BurkardtF
- 22T. ChandlerD
- 34N. CollinsD
- 27M. GötzeM
- 23N. IlicevicM
- 7A. KnauffF
- 37J. MaluzeD
- 40Kauã SantosG
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 43S. NandjaD
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 17W. OmariD
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 28M. MuheimM
- 37L. LemkeM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 9T. MoffiF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 10I. PheraiM
- 18B. JattaM
- 7Z. El OuahdiD
- 27P. DakaF
- 48J. Bissi MouelleD
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 12S. TangvikG
Form going into Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
- L0-1away to Borussia Dortmund24 October 2026
- W1-01. FC Köln16 October 2026
- L0-6away to RB Leipzig10 October 2026
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- L0-1away to SC Paderborn 0724 October 2026
- W1-0VfB Stuttgart17 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV have met 8 times in the records we hold, Eintracht Frankfurt has won 5 of them to Hamburger SV's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Eintracht Frankfurt won the last one 3–1 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 6 |
| Hamburger SV | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
Between them these 8 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 2.75 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 3–1 Hamburger SV - 27 Oct 2026
DFB PokalHamburger SV 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt - 2 May 2026
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SV - 20 Dec 2025
BundesligaHamburger SV 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt - 5 May 2018
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 3–0 Hamburger SV - 12 Dec 2017
BundesligaHamburger SV 1–2 Eintracht Frankfurt - 18 Mar 2017
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 0–0 Hamburger SV - 21 Oct 2016
BundesligaHamburger SV 0–3 Eintracht Frankfurt
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rates 44% above Hamburger SV's, and Hamburger SV concede 4% fewer than Eintracht Frankfurt. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.12 | 1.13 |
| Hamburger SV | 0.78 | 1.09 |
Leading scorers: Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib61
- J. Burkardt51
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Hamburger SV 3–1. The model had made a win for Eintracht Frankfurt its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Warmed Omari (own goal) 10' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Terem Moffi 14' for Hamburger SV, Raphael Onyedika Nwadike 47' for Eintracht Frankfurt, Younes Ebnoutalib 69' for Eintracht Frankfurt. On expected goals it finished 2.02–1.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Eintracht Frankfurt a 5.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.9% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.9%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
For Hamburger SV the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 23.2% going in: 15.5% after a win, 23.2% after a draw, 25.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 51% / 23% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Hamburger SV's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Eintracht Frankfurt win52%▲ +1
- Draw24%▲ +1
- Hamburger SV win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.