27 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig DFB Pokal prediction & result

Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen
Referee: Florian Exner
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Rot-Weiß Essen 1-2 RB Leipzig.

Before kick-off the model made it 11% Rot-Weiß Essen, 17% draw, 72% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 9.09, 5.88 and 1.39.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

RB Leipzig at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rot-Weiß Essen0%Draw3%RB Leipzig97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lucas Brumme
9'
Dickson Abiama
23'
34'
Nicolas Seiwald
44'
Nicolas Seiwald
45'
🔁Andrija Maksimovićout: Neil El Aynaoui
45'
🔁Rocco Reitzout: Brajan Gruda
62'
🔁Ezechiel Banzuziout: Christoph Baumgartner
62'
🔁Ridle Bakuout: Antonio Nusa
🔁Lucas Brummeout: Ekin Celebi
65'
73'
Christoph Baumgartner
🔁Michael Kostkaout: Nick Bätzner
74'
76'
Neil El Aynaoui
Nick Bätzner
77'
78'
⚽Christoph Baumgartnerassist: Antonio Nusa
🔁Noah Peschout: Luca Bazzoli
80'
🔁Dickson Abiamaout: F Vasic
80'
82'
Martín Gastón Demichelis
82'
⚽Christoph Baumgartnerassist: David Raum
87'
🔁Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruzout: Benjamin Henrichs
90+5'
Ørjan Nyland

Match stats — Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig

37%Possession63%
9Shots11
1On target2
5Corners7
1.38xG2.33

Goals against chances

Rot-Weiß Essen1 from 1.38 xGabout what the chances were worth
RB Leipzig2 from 2.33 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. GolzG
  • 2M. KostkaD
  • 15Ben Vincent HüningD
  • 23J. Ríos AlonsoD
  • 19F. BouebariD
  • 16R. ReisigM
  • 22J. SietanM
  • 37J. HofmannM
  • 11Noah PeschM
  • 18D. AbiamaM
  • 14L. BrummeF
Substitutes
  • 25N. BätznerM
  • 32L. BazzoliD
  • 26E. ÇelebiD
  • 36J. GnagnonD
  • 33Eric VerstappenG
  • 35F. WienandG
  • 43F VasicF
  • 40Rami MalaebF
Coach: U. Koschinat
RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 17R. BakuD
  • 4W. OrbánD
  • 23C. LukebaD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 13N. SeiwaldM
  • 6E. BanzuziM
  • 20R. ReitzM
  • 30A. MaksimovićM
  • 27T. GomisM
  • 40RômuloF
Substitutes
  • 21N. El AynaouiM
  • 14C. BaumgartnerM
  • 11J. BakayokoF
  • 7A. NusaM
  • 35Max FinkgräfeD
  • 10B. GrudaF
  • 39B. HenrichsD
  • 2A. KonéD
  • 26M. VandevoordtG
Coach: M. Demichelis

Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig

Rot-Weiß Essen

3. Liga

  • W1-0SSV Jahn Regensburg23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
  • W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026

RB Leipzig

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0SV Elversberg24 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Real Madrid21 October 2026
  • L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
  • W1-0PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
  • W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026

What these results say

  • RB Leipzig scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig

  • 17 August 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 1–4 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal

The result against the call

RB Leipzig won 2–1 at Rot-Weiß Essen. The model had made a win for RB Leipzig its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Lucas Brumme 9' for Rot-Weiß Essen, Christoph Baumgartner 78' for RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner 82' for RB Leipzig. Sent off: Nicolas Seiwald (RB Leipzig) 44'. On expected goals it finished 1.38–2.33.

How the call on Rot-Weiß Essen v RB Leipzig has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 13% / 20% / 67% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 11% / 17% / 72%: the biggest move is RB Leipzig's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Rot-Weiß Essen win11%▼ −2
  2. Draw17%▼ −3
  3. RB Leipzig win72%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.