1 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln Bundesliga prediction & result

Berlin
Referee: Richard Hempel
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Union Berlin, 27% draw, 33% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Union Berlin at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Berlin4%Draw92%1. FC Köln4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Janik Habererassist: Tim Skarke
10'
Zeno Van Den Bosch
37'
45+1'
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
53'
Paul Okon-Engstler
Kastriot Imeri
54'
61'
🔁Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsenout: Alessio Castro-Montes
61'
🔁Ísak Bergmann Jóhannessonout: Mikey Moore
🔁Kastriot Imeriout: Aljoscha Kemlein
61'
🔁Tim Skarkeout: Oliver Burke
61'
69'
Linton Maina
72'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Malek El Mala
🔁Livan Burcuout: Woo-Yeong Jeong
74'
🔁Janik Habererout: Christopher Trimmel
74'
Aljoscha Kemlein
76'
Derrick Köhn
77'
79'
⚽Malek El Malaassist: Alessio Castro-Montes
🔁Michel Aebischerout: Emmanuel Latte Lath
84'

Match stats — Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln

37%Possession63%
5Shots14
2On target2
2Corners6
0.91xG1.22

Goals against chances

Union Berlin1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth
1. FC Köln1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union Berlin 3-4-1-2
  • 1F. RønnowG
  • 4Z. Van Den BoschD
  • 5M. FriedrichD
  • 8R. KhediraD
  • 19J. HabererM
  • 13A. SchäferM
  • 20M. AebischerM
  • 17D. KöhnM
  • 30K. ImeriM
  • 21T. SkarkeF
  • 9Livan BurcuF
Substitutes
  • 7O. BurkeF
  • 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
  • 32M. GrayF
  • 6A. KemleinM
  • 29E. Latte LathF
  • 14L. QuerfeldD
  • 31M. RaabG
  • 15T. RotheD
  • 28C. TrimmelD
Coach: M. Lustrinelli
1. FC Köln 4-4-2
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 28S. SebulonsenD
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 30M. BülterF
  • 10S. El MalaF
Substitutes
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 17A. Castro-MontesM
  • 11Reigan HeskeyF
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 47M. MooreF
  • 29J. ThielmannM
  • 7L. WaldschmidtF
  • 19M. El MalaF
Coach: René Wagner

Form going into Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln

Union Berlin

Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to FC Augsburg24 October 2026
  • D0-0Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
  • W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026

1. FC Köln

Bundesliga

  • D0-0FC Schalke 0424 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt16 October 2026
  • W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Union Berlin9144721-147
151. FC Köln92341014-49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Union Berlin

1. FC Köln and Union Berlin have met 8 times in the records we hold, Union Berlin has won 3 of them to 1. FC Köln's 2, with 3 drawn.

The record

They drew 1–1 at Union Berlin on 1 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
1. FC Köln233119
Union Berlin332911

Between them these 8 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 1 Nov 2026
    Bundesliga    Union Berlin 1–1 1. FC Köln
  • 27 Oct 2026
    DFB Pokal    1. FC Köln 5–0 Union Berlin
  • 2 May 2026
    Bundesliga    Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC Köln
  • 20 Dec 2025
    Bundesliga    1. FC Köln 0–1 Union Berlin
  • 11 May 2024
    Bundesliga    1. FC Köln 3–2 Union Berlin
  • 20 Dec 2023
    Bundesliga    Union Berlin 2–0 1. FC Köln
  • 4 Mar 2023
    Bundesliga    Union Berlin 0–0 1. FC Köln
  • 11 Sep 2022
    Bundesliga    1. FC Köln 0–1 Union Berlin

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, 1. FC Köln's attack rates 9% above Union Berlin's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
1. FC Köln0.761.08
Union Berlin0.701.08

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Berlin at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Janik Haberer 10' for Union Berlin, Malek El Mala 79' for 1. FC Köln. On expected goals it finished 0.91–1.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union Berlin a 31.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 25.4% after a win, 33.3% after a draw, 39.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.3%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

For 1. FC Köln the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 29.1% going in: 20.6% after a win, 30.8% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.8%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.