Regular Season - 12 · 28 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Farense vs União de Leiria Segunda Liga prediction

Faro

Our model says: Farense 2–1 União de Leiria

The model makes it 45% Farense, 25% draw, 30% União de Leiria — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Farense 1.84, União de Leiria 1.43.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Farense's rating is built from 46 Liga Portugal 2 matches and União de Leiria's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Farense are 8th on 15 points from 10 games; União de Leiria are 5th on 17 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
  • Farense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Benfica B.
  • União de Leiria are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Torreense.
  • Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended União de Leiria 0–3 Farense.

More Liga Portugal 2 predictions

All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Farense vs União de Leiria

64%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Farense win Draw União de Leiria win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Farense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Farense at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Farense vs União de Leiria

Farense

Segunda Liga

  • L2-3Benfica B8 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa1 November 2026
  • L1-4Penafiel24 October 2026
  • W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
  • W4-0Chaves4 October 2026

União de Leiria

Segunda Liga

  • W3-2away to Torreense9 November 2026
  • W2-1AVS31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Porto B25 October 2026
  • L0-2Academica11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Farense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Farense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Farense had three goals or more.
  • União de Leiria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • União de Leiria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for União de Leiria.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Farense104331714+315
5União de Leiria105231613+317

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Farense

Chance to finish in the top three · 11% today

Win 13%
Draw 8%
Defeat 8%

União de Leiria

Chance to finish in the top three · 21% today

Win 27%
Draw 19%
Defeat 17%

From our Segunda Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Farense vs União de Leiria

  • 3 May 2026União de Leiria 0–3 FarenseSegunda Liga
  • 21 December 2025Farense 0–1 União de LeiriaSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Farense and União de Leiria

Farense

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Silva10
  • S. Singh10

União de Leiria

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour União de Leiria (fifth, with Farense eighth), while our numbers lean to Farense. Farense rate 0.67 in attack and 1.52 in defence, União de Leiria 0.78 and 1.69 (lower is better in defence), so Farense have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Farense a 1.1% chance of the title and União de Leiria 4.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Farense União de Leiria
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.78
1.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.69
1.84 Model expected goals (this match) 1.43

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Farense the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Farense against 1.43 for União de Leiria. Farense's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.69 for União de Leiria.

Farense carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.47 for União de Leiria. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for Farense to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Farense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Farense's ratings take away 1 point and União de Leiria's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Farense's ratings45%−1
  5. União de Leiria's ratings45%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FarenseUnião de Leiria
10Matches10
4W 3D 3LRecord5W 2D 3L
17 1.7 per gameGoals scored16 1.6 per game
14 1.4 per gameGoals conceded13 1.3 per game
2 of 10Clean sheets2 of 10
1 of 10Failed to score2 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
22 2.2 per gameYellow cards20 2.0 per game
2Red cards0
4-3-3 7×Usual shape4-4-2 5×

Farense at home · União de Leiria away

6Played5
3W 1D 2LRecord2W 2D 1L
12–10Goals for – against10–8
1 of 6Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda Liga matches this season: Farense 10, União de Leiria 10.

Farense scored 222632
União de Leiria conceded 143104

Farense score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); União de Leiria have let in 1 there.

União de Leiria scored 112533
Farense conceded 314203

União de Leiria score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Farense have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Farense

  • at Vizela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 31%
  • vs Amarante13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 50%
  • at Leixoes20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 34%
  • vs Portimonense27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%

União de Leiria

  • vs Sporting CP B2 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 41%
  • vs Chaves7 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 59%
  • at Feirense12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 39%
  • vs Felgueiras 193220 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 52%
  • at Lusitânia Lourosa27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 31%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.