Clausura - 17 · 15 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys Primera División prediction

Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, Cutervo

Our model says: Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Sport Boys

The model makes it 40% Comerciantes Unidos, 30% draw, 30% Sport Boys — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Comerciantes Unidos 1.29, Sport Boys 1.06.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Comerciantes Unidos's rating is built from 67 Primera División (Peru) matches and Sport Boys's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Comerciantes Unidos are 13th on 37 points from 33 games; Sport Boys are 11th on 42 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
  • Comerciantes Unidos are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Deportivo Garcilaso.
  • Sport Boys are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to UTC Cajamarca.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sport Boys 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Sport Boys 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos.

More Primera División (Peru) predictions

All Primera División (Peru) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

48%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Comerciantes Unidos win Draw Sport Boys win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Comerciantes Unidos first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Comerciantes Unidos at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

Comerciantes Unidos

Primera División

  • D0-0away to Deportivo Garcilaso8 November 2026
  • D2-2ADT3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to FBC Melgar30 October 2026
  • W3-1Cienciano25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Sporting Cristal18 October 2026

Sport Boys

Primera División

  • D0-0UTC Cajamarca8 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Universitario5 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Cusco1 November 2026
  • W4-2FC Cajamarca25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Comerciantes Unidos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Comerciantes Unidos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Comerciantes Unidos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Comerciantes Unidos33813124447-337
11Sport Boys331210113735+242

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

  • 30 May 2026Sport Boys 1–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 13 September 2025Sport Boys 0–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 13 April 2025Comerciantes Unidos 0–4 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 24 October 2024Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 11 May 2024Sport Boys 1–1 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División

Leading scorers: Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys

Comerciantes Unidos

GoalsAssists

  • M. Sen113

Sport Boys

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sport Boys (11th, with Comerciantes Unidos 13th), while our numbers lean to Comerciantes Unidos. Comerciantes Unidos rate 0.58 in attack and 1.69 in defence, Sport Boys 0.52 and 1.37 (lower is better in defence), so Comerciantes Unidos have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Boys has moved

First published on 31 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Comerciantes Unidos's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Comerciantes Unidos win40%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Sport Boys win30%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Comerciantes Unidos Sport Boys
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
1.69 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.37
1.29 Model expected goals (this match) 1.06

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Comerciantes Unidos the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos against 1.06 for Sport Boys. Comerciantes Unidos's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.37 for Sport Boys.

Comerciantes Unidos carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.38 for Sport Boys. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Comerciantes Unidos to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Comerciantes Unidos to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Comerciantes Unidos's ratings change nothing and Sport Boys's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Comerciantes Unidos's ratings42%±0
  5. Sport Boys's ratings40%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Comerciantes UnidosSport Boys
33Matches33
8W 13D 12LRecord12W 10D 11L
44 1.3 per gameGoals scored37 1.1 per game
47 1.4 per gameGoals conceded35 1.1 per game
6 of 33Clean sheets14 of 33
8 of 33Failed to score9 of 33
7 of 7Penalties scored6 of 8
81 2.5 per gameYellow cards92 2.8 per game
9Red cards10
4-2-3-1 18×Usual shape4-2-3-1 21×

Comerciantes Unidos at home · Sport Boys away

16Played16
6W 7D 3LRecord3W 4D 9L
22–16Goals for – against13–23
5 of 16Clean sheets4 of 16

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Comerciantes Unidos 33, Sport Boys 33.

Comerciantes Unidos scored 4381259
Sport Boys conceded 638458

Comerciantes Unidos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Sport Boys have let in 4 there.

Sport Boys scored 1571239
Comerciantes Unidos conceded 71175710

Sport Boys score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Comerciantes Unidos have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.