Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Shakhtar Donetsk, 22% draw, 17% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Shakhtar Donetsk at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
Line-ups
- 31D. RiznykG
- 17Vinícius TobiasD
- 5V. BondarD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 13PedrinhoD
- 27O. OcheretkoM
- 29E. NazarynaM
- 6Marlon GomesM
- 30Alisson SantanaM
- 77G. MendozaM
- 2L. TraoréF
- 37Lucas FerreiraM
- 25Gabriel CarvalhoF
- 23K. FesyunG
- 18A. GhramD
- 20O. KaravaevM
- 8D. KryskivM
- 16I. AzaroviD
- 11NewerttonM
- 28A. MatturroD
- 1H. BushchanG
- 18O. TymchykD
- 94T. KędzioraD
- 66A. ThiareD
- 44V. DubinchakD
- 6V. BrazhkoM
- 16S. OgundanaM
- 8O. PikhalyonokM
- 10M. ShaparenkoM
- 9N. VoloshynM
- 11M. PonomarenkoF
- 40K. BilovarD
- 42K. BahF
- 21J. LonwijkM
- 99P. MounguengueF
- 91M. MykhaylenkoM
- 35R. NeshcheretG
- 43I. OlkhovyiG
- 47Gustavo PradoM
- 15V. RubchynskyiM
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
- W2-0Obolon'-Brovar30 October 2026
- D0-0Zorya Luhansk24 October 2026
- W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
Dynamo Kyiv
Premier League
- W2-0away to Kryvbas KR2 November 2026
- W3-1Kudrivka23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Polessya18 October 2026
- W1-0Karpaty11 October 2026
What these results say
- Shakhtar Donetsk went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dynamo Kyiv scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dynamo Kyiv won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 29 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
- 27 October 2026Shakhtar Donetsk 3–0 Dynamo KyivCup
- 3 May 2026Dynamo Kyiv 1–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 2 November 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 29 October 2025Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 Shakhtar DonetskCup
- 14 May 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 Dynamo KyivCup
- 27 April 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 2–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- Alisson Santana32
- Kauã Elias30
Dynamo Kyiv
GoalsAssists
- M. Ponomarenko60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Shakhtar Donetsk at 61% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. Sent off: Vinícius Tobias (Shakhtar Donetsk) 53'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shakhtar Donetsk a 73.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 76.8% after a win, 69.1% after a draw, 60.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 69.1%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.
For Dynamo Kyiv the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 70.0% going in: 77.5% after a win, 71.0% after a draw, 68.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 71.0%, 1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Shakhtar Donetsk v Dynamo Kyiv has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 64% / 21% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Shakhtar Donetsk win61%▼ −3
- Draw22%▲ +1
- Dynamo Kyiv win17%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.