Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1-1 Sportivo Trinidense.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 56% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 5.56, 3.85 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sportivo Trinidense at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31L. FrancoG
- 24Matias AgueroD
- 5T. ParedesD
- 21H. GonzalezD
- 13Isaias FretesD
- 22K. FerreiraM
- 6H. VillamayorM
- 15B. PiñataresM
- 25K. FernándezM
- 9J. BarriosF
- 8R. AmarillaF
- 35C. ColmánF
- 32F. AragónM
- 16Á. BenítezM
- 39Lucas Andres Cohener GonzalezM
- 4A. DoldánD
- 26Amin Duarte Gonzalez JoseM
- 28P. GerzelF
- 20D. Meza MontielD
- 27Elias OrtizM
- 12V. SamudioG
- 23C. BenítezD
- 40A. da SilveiraD
- 6A. CañeteD
- 4D. MelgarejoD
- 5N. GautoM
- 22J. GamarraM
- 21G. VieraM
- 29T. RayerM
- 31A. MorinigoM
- 7N. CamachoF
- 13Deivis Faustino Barone MoraF
- 24F. BarujaM
- 1M. DufourG
- 11L. AbreuM
- 9O. GiménezF
- 37L. GonzalezM
- 20C. GonzálezF
- 28B. LeguizamonM
- 10N. ManáF
Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Club Guarani3 October 2026
Sportivo Trinidense
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Sportivo Luqueno5 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 11 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Trinidense
- 3 August 2026Sportivo Trinidense 3–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 17 April 2026Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 19 February 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 October 2022Sportivo Trinidense 2–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
- 4 July 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Intermedia
- 18 October 2021Club Sp. San Lorenzo 5–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Intermedia
Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Sportivo Trinidense
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- M. Ferreira51
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Sportivo Trinidense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sportivo Trinidense at 56% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Barrios (penalty) 25' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, Gustavo Viera 90+4' for Sportivo Trinidense. On expected goals it finished 1.24–1.17.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Trinidense a 59.9% chance to finish in the top four: 67.0% after a win, 50.1% after a draw, 42.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 50.1%, 9.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Sportivo Trinidense has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 21% / 28% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 18% / 26% / 56%: the biggest move is Sportivo Trinidense's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo win18%▼ −3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Sportivo Trinidense win56%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.