13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Full time4 – 1

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% PSV Eindhoven, 23% draw, 18% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PSV Eindhoven at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PSV Eindhoven99%Draw1%Sparta Rotterdam0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Milan Zonneveldassist: Bas Kuipers
⚽Sven Mijnansassist: Esmir Bajraktarević
23'
30'
Bruno Martins Indi
⚽Kodai Sanoassist: Esmir Bajraktarević
39'
🔁Esmir Bajraktarevićout: Ivan Perišić
60'
🔁Guus Tilout: Ricardo Pepi
60'
🔁Amir Bouhamdiout: Ruben van Bommel
60'
63'
🔁Casper Terhoout: Teo Quintero León
63'
🔁Julian Baasout: Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi
⚽Sven Mijnans
74'
Armando Obispo
75'
🔁Paul Wannerout: Noah Fernandez
77'
77'
🔁Milan Zonneveldout: Andrej Kostić
77'
🔁Mitchell Van Bergenout: Robin van Cruijsen
82'
🔁Bruno Martins Indiout: Joel Ideho
⚽Sven Mijnansassist: Lutsharel Geertruida
88'
🔁Sven Mijnansout: Ayoni Santos
90'

Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam

76%Possession24%
28Shots10
10On target6
9Corners5

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven 4-3-3
  • 32M. KovářG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 17Mauro JúniorD
  • 20G. TilM
  • 10P. WannerM
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 19E. BajraktarevicF
  • 21S. MijnansF
  • 37A. BouhamdiF
Substitutes
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 9R. PepiF
  • 5I. PerišićF
  • 35A. SantosM
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 38F. MeriénD
  • 51T. SmolenaarsG
  • 27D. ManF
Coach: P. Bosz
Sparta Rotterdam 3-4-2-1
  • 1M. BrouwerG
  • 3M. YoungD
  • 6N. VerschurenD
  • 4B. Martins IndiD
  • 2L. MartesM
  • 8J. BaasM
  • 10Cedric HatenboerM
  • 5B. KuipersM
  • 7C. TerhoM
  • 11M. van BergenM
  • 9M. ZonneveldF
Substitutes
  • 15G. VianelloD
  • 17Robin van CruijsenM
  • 18J. ToornstraM
  • 16A. RoaldsøyM
  • 12B. ReithD
  • 30P. KuiperG
  • 19Andrej KostićF
  • 22Joel IdehoF
  • 20F. BednarekG
Coach: R. Meijer

Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
  • W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
  • W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026

Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
  • D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
  • L0-1Feyenoord9 August 2026

What these results say

  • PSV Eindhoven went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sparta Rotterdam failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sparta Rotterdam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1PSV Eindhoven128224015+2526
12Sparta Rotterdam123362129-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam

  • 11 April 2026Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 9 August 2025PSV Eindhoven 6–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 18 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 5 October 2024PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 5 May 2024PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

The full PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam record →

Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam

PSV Eindhoven

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mijnans92
  • G. Til71

Sparta Rotterdam

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zonneveld72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

PSV Eindhoven beat Sparta Rotterdam 4–1. The model had made a win for PSV Eindhoven its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Milan Zonneveld 15' for Sparta Rotterdam, Sven Mijnans 23' for PSV Eindhoven, Kodai Sano 39' for PSV Eindhoven, Sven Mijnans 74' for PSV Eindhoven, Sven Mijnans 88' for PSV Eindhoven.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.