PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% PSV Eindhoven, 23% draw, 18% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 59% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
Line-ups
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 17Mauro JúniorD
- 20G. TilM
- 10P. WannerM
- 24K. SanoM
- 19E. BajraktarevicF
- 21S. MijnansF
- 37A. BouhamdiF
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 9R. PepiF
- 5I. PerišićF
- 35A. SantosM
- 1N. OlijG
- 38F. MeriénD
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
- 27D. ManF
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 3M. YoungD
- 6N. VerschurenD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 2L. MartesM
- 8J. BaasM
- 10Cedric HatenboerM
- 5B. KuipersM
- 7C. TerhoM
- 11M. van BergenM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 15G. VianelloD
- 17Robin van CruijsenM
- 18J. ToornstraM
- 16A. RoaldsøyM
- 12B. ReithD
- 30P. KuiperG
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 20F. BednarekG
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 13 September 2026PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 11 April 2026Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 9 August 2025PSV Eindhoven 6–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 18 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 5 October 2024PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 5 May 2024PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists
Sparta Rotterdam
- M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.