Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 2-1 Lask Linz.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sturm Graz, 29% draw, 30% Lask Linz — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 41% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
Line-ups
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 28J. HeilD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 5A. VallciD
- 23A. MalicD
- 19S. SeidlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 15G. MamageishviliF
- 20S. JattaF
- 10O. KiteishviliM
- 30P. KollerD
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 8F. RózgaM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 22A. HelacG
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 27L. BalboD
- 1L. JungwirthG
- 4X. MbuyambaD
- 43AlemãoD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 20K. JørgensenM
- 6M. BogardeM
- 30S. HorvathM
- 2G. BelloM
- 9K. DaněkM
- 8M. UsorF
- 27C. LangF
- 33T. SchützenauerG
- 3M. FreckletonD
- 23Daniel ElfadliM
- 25Y. DibangoD
- 29F. FleckerF
- 18A. SchöpfM
- 10R. LjubičićM
- 11S. KalajdzicF
- 45N. KaneF
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
Lask Linz
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
- W4-1Ried14 August 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 1 | Lask Linz | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
- 13 September 2026Sturm Graz 2–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 22 April 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 19 April 2026Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 23 November 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 1 August 2025Lask Linz 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 16 March 2025Sturm Graz 4–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
Lask Linz
- S. Adeniran4 goals1 assists
- C. Lang4 goals
- M. Usor2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.