13 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov Premier League prediction & result

Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Spartak Moscow 3-0 FC Rostov.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Spartak Moscow, 27% draw, 25% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Spartak Moscow at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Moscow99%Draw1%FC Rostov0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gedson Fernandesassist: Daniil Denisov
26'
•Nail Umyarov
51'
⚽Pablo Solari (pen)
55'
60'
🔁Ivan Komarovout: Ronaldo
63'
Konstantin Kuchaev
🔁Marquinhosout: Igor Dmitriev
66'
67'
Timur Suleymanov
🔁Roman Zobninout: Danil Prutsev
67'
71'
🔁Timur Suleymanovout: Maksim Mukhin
72'
Andrey Langovich
🔁Srdjan Babicout: Christopher Wooh
75'
🔁Manfred Ugaldeout: Mirlind Daku
75'
86'
🔁Yaroslav Mikhailovout: Daniil Shantaliy
🔁Pablo Solariout: Nikita Massalyga
86'
⚽Nikita Massalygaassist: Igor Dmitriev
89'
90'
Konstantin Kuchaev
Victor Parada
90+3'
Christopher Wooh
90+3'
90+5'
Danila Prokhin

Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov

65%Possession35%
15Shots9
9On target7
3Corners5

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 6S. BabićD
  • 33Víctor ParadaD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 47R. ZobninM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 83Gedson FernandesM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 17V. SausM
  • 24Nikita MassalygaM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 62P. PolekhF
  • 3C. WoohD
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 19M. DakuF
Coach: Carcedo
FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 59N. BabakinD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 5Y. MikhaylovM
  • 27D. ProkhinM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 10I. KomarovF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 1R. YatimovG
  • 13D. TitovM
  • 11Ibraheem AjasaF
  • 34D. GolikovG
  • 80K. MadrakhimovF
  • 16M. MukhinM
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 91Anton ShamoninF
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
Coach: Jonatan Alba

Form going into Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov

Spartak Moscow

  • L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
  • D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
  • W2-0Zenit23 August 2026

FC Rostov

  • W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026
  • D1-1Rubin15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Spartak Moscow9612167+919
12FC Rostov82241014-48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov

  • 13 September 2026Spartak Moscow 3–0 FC RostovPremier League
  • 12 April 2026FC Rostov 1–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 21 February 2026Spartak Moscow 5–2 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 October 2025Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC RostovPremier League
  • 18 September 2025Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC RostovCup
  • 30 July 2025FC Rostov 0–2 Spartak MoscowCup
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.