Salford City vs Crawley Town League Two prediction & result
Final score: Salford City 2-1 Crawley Town.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Salford City, 25% draw, 19% Crawley Town — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Salford City at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Salford City vs Crawley Town
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1W. NorrisG
- 43L. MolyneuxD
- 4W. AimsonD
- 17D. ScarrD
- 24T. AllenD
- 14A. OdohD
- 18M. ButcherM
- 16E. BondsM
- 8J. GrantM
- 21K. CesayF
- 9M. LangstaffF
- 23D. UdohF
- 44B. Sarpong-WireduM
- 22A. OluwoD
- 19R. GraydonF
- 29L. GarbuttD
- 26L. BurgeG
- 2N. AsiimweD
- 1V. MannoneG
- 6P. FarquharsonD
- 5C. BarkerD
- 12L. RichardsD
- 22A. AdeyemoM
- 28Nathan TinsdaleM
- 20J. ArthursM
- 30Kai JenningsM
- 10S. Duke-McKennaM
- 27Dylan MorganF
- 14G. Di BiaseF
- 2K. GordonM
- 17Osman KamaraF
- 13N. MichalskiG
- 9D. OrsiF
- 16J. RussellD
- 8L. WatsonM
- 4Pele Arganese-McDermottD
Form going into Salford City vs Crawley Town
Salford City
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Cheltenham10 October 2026
- W1-0Fleetwood Town3 October 2026
- W4-1away to Oldham26 September 2026
Crawley Town
League Two
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 32 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Salford City vs Crawley Town
- 2 May 2026Crawley Town 0–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 29 November 2025Salford City 4–3 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 13 January 2024Crawley Town 0–1 Salford CityLeague Two
- 12 August 2023Salford City 1–1 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 28 January 2023Crawley Town 3–2 Salford CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Salford City and Crawley Town
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- M. Langstaff51
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Salford City beat Crawley Town 2–1. The model had made a win for Salford City its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Macaulay Langstaff 17' for Salford City, Macaulay Langstaff 50' for Salford City, Dylan Morgan 59' for Crawley Town. On expected goals it finished 1.68–0.56.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Salford City a 52.3% chance to finish in the top four: 55.5% after a win, 48.8% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.5%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
For Crawley Town the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 57.4% going in: 49.7% after a win, 56.3% after a draw, 59.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.9%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Salford City v Crawley Town has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is Salford City's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Salford City win56%▲ +7
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Crawley Town win19%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.