Fixtures & Predictions
League Two predictions
26 matches ahead, from 21 November to 28 November, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Grimsby, 63% against Rotherham. 4 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.
1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC
Saturday 21 November — 12 matches
- 12:30 UTC Gillingham vs Crewe — model 37% / 27% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.70 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
- 12:30 UTC Newport County vs Swindon Town — model 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.57 · 3.33. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Northampton vs Rochdale — model 46% / 31% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.23 · 4.35. Edge: Northampton
- 15:00 UTC Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: Chesterfield
- 15:00 UTC Oldham vs Exeter City — model 32% / 35% / 33%, most likely 0-0, fair odds 3.13 · 2.86 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach
- 15:00 UTC Accrington Stanley vs Salford City — model 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.70 · 2.56. Edge: Salford City
- 15:00 UTC Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: Fleetwood Town
- 15:00 UTC Grimsby vs Rotherham — model 63% / 20% / 17%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.59 · 5.00 · 5.88. One-sided: Grimsby
- 15:00 UTC Barnet vs Port Vale — model 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.00 · 4.17. Edge: Barnet
- 15:00 UTC Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Tranmere vs Colchester — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
- 15:00 UTC York vs Walsall — model 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.70 · 3.03. Evenly matched
Tuesday 24 November — 2 matches
- 19:45 UTC Port Vale vs Northampton — model 37% / 34% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 2.94 · 3.45. Evenly matched
- 19:45 UTC Crawley Town vs Barnet — model 25% / 25% / 50%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 4.00 · 2.00. One-sided: Barnet
Saturday 28 November — 12 matches
- 12:30 UTC Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere — model 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.57 · 3.23. Evenly matched
- 12:30 UTC Exeter City vs Crawley Town — model 48% / 32% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.13 · 5.00. Edge: Exeter City
- 15:00 UTC Rotherham vs Oldham — model 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.70 · 2.56. Edge: Oldham
- 15:00 UTC Fleetwood Town vs Accrington Stanley — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Rochdale vs Barnet — model 24% / 23% / 53%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 4.35 · 1.89. One-sided: Barnet
- 15:00 UTC Walsall vs Northampton — model 42% / 33% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.03 · 4.00. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Port Vale vs Newport County — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched
- 15:00 UTC Swindon Town vs Chesterfield — model 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.57 · 2.56. Edge: Chesterfield
- 15:00 UTC Colchester vs York — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
- 15:00 UTC Crewe vs Grimsby — model 32% / 26% / 42%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 3.85 · 2.38. Edge: Grimsby
- 15:00 UTC Salford City vs Gillingham — model 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.79 · 4.17 · 5.00. Edge: Salford City
Last round: the model's hits and misses
14 November: the model called the result of 6 of 10 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 90 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 46% of results.
- Exeter City 1–0 Cheltenham — the model said 46% / 30% / 24%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
- Bristol Rovers 0–2 Chesterfield — the model said 35% / 27% / 38%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
- Colchester 2–0 Gillingham — the model said 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- Crewe 2–2 Newport County — the model said 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Port Vale 4–2 Accrington Stanley — the model said 34% / 31% / 35%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
- Rochdale 0–1 York — the model said 31% / 24% / 45%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
- Salford City 1–1 Northampton — the model said 46% / 32% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Shrewsbury 2–1 Oldham — the model said 34% / 29% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
- Swindon Town 1–4 Grimsby — the model said 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
- Fleetwood Town 1–0 Tranmere — the model said 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
League Two so far
Top of the table
- 1. Salford City — 32 pts from 15 (10W 2D 3L, goals 26–16)
- 2. Barnet — 26 pts from 13 (7W 5D 1L, goals 28–18)
- 3. Grimsby — 23 pts from 15 (6W 5D 4L, goals 28–19)
- 4. York — 23 pts from 15 (6W 5D 4L, goals 25–21)
- 5. Crewe — 23 pts from 15 (5W 8D 2L, goals 19–19)
The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 378 matches left: Barnet 36.8%, Salford City 29%, Grimsby 12.1%.
Leading scorers: K. Tshimanga (Barnet) 10 goals, A. Drinan (Swindon Town) 9 goals, C. McCann (Cheltenham) 9 goals.
League Two table · Accuracy by competition · Head-to-head records · All competitions