17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Port Vale vs Chesterfield League Two prediction & result

Vale Park, Stoke on Trent
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Port Vale, 29% draw, 34% Chesterfield — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Port Vale at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Port Vale96%Draw4%Chesterfield0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Cameron Humphreys
15'
Jordan Gabriel
30'
33'
🔁Joel Randallout: Josh Koroma
⚽Onel Hernández
45'
54'
Ryan Stirk
Jaheim·Headley
59'
64'
Lewis Gordon
🔁Max Watters out: Oliver Lynch
65'
🔁Onel Hernándezout: Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales
66'
Jon Edmund Alexander Brady
69'
🔁George Cardinal Joseph·Hallout: George Byers
73'
🔁Jaheim·Headleyout: Kyle John
73'
🔁Kyle Dempseyout: Rhys Walters
79'
79'
🔁Lewis Gordonout: Tom Pearce
79'
🔁Ryan Stirkout: Liam Mandeville
80'
🔁Louie Marshout: Kiano Dyer
84'
🔁Dilan Markandayout: Will Grigg

Match stats — Port Vale vs Chesterfield

36%Possession64%
5Shots8
3On target4
0Corners10
0.61xG0.28

Goals against chances

Port Vale1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth
Chesterfield0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Port Vale 3-5-2
  • 20M. MarošiG
  • 25C. HumphreysD
  • 4J. MoonD
  • 5C. HallD
  • 6J. Lawrence-GabrielM
  • 10K. DempseyM
  • 33G. HallM
  • 8B. GarrityM
  • 3J. HeadleyM
  • 36M. WattersF
  • 11O. HernándezF
Substitutes
  • 27M. AsamoahF
  • 7G. ByersM
  • 2K. JohnD
  • 1J. SmithG
  • 38R. WaltersM
  • 24K. FigueroaF
  • 14O. LynchF
Coach: J. Brady
Chesterfield 4-2-3-1
  • 23R. BootG
  • 33R. HuttonD
  • 5K. McFadzeanD
  • 6J. SimpsonD
  • 19L. GordonD
  • 20G. McEachranM
  • 8R. StirkM
  • 24D. MarkandayM
  • 18L. MarshM
  • 31J. RandallM
  • 10L. BonisF
Substitutes
  • 4T. NaylorM
  • 46T. PearceD
  • 7L. MandevilleM
  • 37J. KoromaF
  • 28W. GriggF
  • 27K. DyerM
  • 26J. EcclestonD
Coach: P. Cook

Form going into Port Vale vs Chesterfield

Port Vale

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Grimsby10 October 2026

Chesterfield

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Crawley Town10 October 2026
  • W4-2Tranmere3 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Cheltenham26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Port Vale135351416-218
7Chesterfield156452621+522

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Chesterfield

  • 22 September 2026Chesterfield 1–1 Port ValeEFL Trophy
  • 25 January 2025Chesterfield 1–1 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 14 September 2024Port Vale 1–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 31 July 2021Chesterfield 0–1 Port ValeFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 March 2018Port Vale 2–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two

Leading scorers: Port Vale and Chesterfield

Port Vale

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Chesterfield

GoalsAssists

  • L. Marsh61
  • L. Bonis52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Port Vale beat Chesterfield 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Port Vale at 37%. The goal: Onel Hernández 45' for Port Vale. On expected goals it finished 0.61–0.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Port Vale a 10.9% chance to finish in the top four: 13.2% after a win, 9.5% after a draw, 8.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For Chesterfield the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 36.0% going in: 41.1% after a win, 35.5% after a draw, 31.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.4%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Port Vale v Chesterfield has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Port Vale win37%▲ +1
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Chesterfield win34%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.