Tenerife
vs
Mallorca
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Tenerife 0–1 Mallorca
The model makes it 32% Tenerife, 30% draw, 38% Mallorca — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Tenerife 1.12, Mallorca 1.25.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Mallorca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Tenerife's rating is built from 12 Segunda División matches and Mallorca's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- Tenerife are 14th on 15 points from 12 games; Mallorca are 5th on 23 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
- Tenerife have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Andorra.
- Mallorca are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: Mallorca 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 January 2024, ended Tenerife 0–1 Mallorca.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tenerife vs Mallorca
Has the model earned this number?
Mallorca at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tenerife vs Mallorca
Tenerife
Segunda División
- D2-2FC Andorra2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sabadell25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
Mallorca
Segunda División
- D3-3Cordoba14 November 2026
- W2-1Cadiz2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Leganes24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Eibar17 October 2026
- W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026
What these results say
- Tenerife did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mallorca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mallorca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mallorca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tenerife
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 14% today
Mallorca
Chance to finish in the top two · 10% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Mallorca
- 16 January 2024Tenerife 0–1 MallorcaCopa del Rey
- 19 May 2021Tenerife 0–1 MallorcaSegunda División
- 3 October 2020Mallorca 2–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 29 August 2020Mallorca 2–0 TenerifeFriendlies Clubs
- 22 February 2019Tenerife 2–2 MallorcaSegunda División
- 6 October 2018Mallorca 4–1 TenerifeSegunda División
Leading scorers: Tenerife and Mallorca
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego81
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tenerife a 0% chance of the title and Mallorca 3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Tenerife v Mallorca has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 30% / 31% / 39% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Tenerife's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Tenerife win32%▲ +2
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Mallorca win38%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.25 for Mallorca. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.06 for Mallorca.
How the model reaches 38% for Mallorca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mallorca to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Tenerife's ratings add 5 points and Mallorca's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Tenerife's ratings34%+5
- Mallorca's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Tenerife at home · Mallorca away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Tenerife 12, Mallorca 13.
Tenerife score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Mallorca have let in 1 there.
Mallorca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Tenerife have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tenerife
- at Albacete29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Eldense6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- at Valladolid13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Mallorca
- vs Castellón29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at Celta de Vigo II6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- vs Burgos13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Albacete20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.